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FOREX-Major currencies mark time as investors brace for key risk events

Published 12/10/2019, 01:07 PM
Updated 12/10/2019, 01:08 PM
© Reuters.  FOREX-Major currencies mark time as investors brace for key risk events
USD/JPY
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* Investors mildly positive ahead of risk-filled few days
* Kiwi rallies; dollar steady vs yen
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Tom Westbrook
SINGAPORE, Dec 10 (Reuters) - The dollar and yen mostly held
the safe-haven high ground on Tuesday, with investors wary of a
looming deadline for U.S. tariffs on China, the British election
and upcoming Federal Reserve and European Central Bank meetings.
Front of mind is whether Washington will go ahead with a
fresh round of tariffs on Sunday, or whether a deal with China
can be reached before then.
White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on Friday
that the Dec. 15 deadline is still in place, but Agriculture
Secretary Sonny Perdue on Monday raised the possibility the
tariffs are not imposed. "There's risks both ways," said Westpac FX analyst Imre
Speizer.
"Trade's still the flip-floppy factor, but I think markets
are still reasonably upbeat about risk-seeking. All these little
movements are only smoke and noise, and don't really tell you
what's going on. Cautiously positive would be the overall mood."

Soaring inflation in China, ahead even of lofty
expectations, had little effect on a market waiting for trade
news. Against the Japanese yen JPY= , the greenback found support
after last week's declines, steadying at 108.62 yen. The dollar
dipped slightly against the euro to $1.1066 and was steady
against a basket of currencies at 97.623.
The New Zealand dollar NZD=D3 rallied as bears trimmed
short bets following a slew of recent upbeat economic data,
rising 0.2% to $0.6560 and dragging the Australian dollar higher
with it to $0.6828 AUD=D3 .
The U.S. dollar's recovery after weakness last week has been
supported by a surge in hiring in November.
That has investors almost certain that the U.S. Federal
Reserve will hold rates steady when their two-day meeting
concludes on Wednesday, increasing investors' focus on the
outlook and on finding a trade-war truce. FEDWATCH
China said on Monday it hoped to make a trade deal with the
United States as soon as possible, though gave no new details or
insight into the progress of the talks.
"We expect regional currencies to stay moribund as we await
news on the trade front," said OANDA analyst Jeffrey Halley.
Elsewhere, the European Central Bank is likewise expected to
keep interest rates steady, while the pound's fate is in the
hands of voters at Thursday's British election. ECBWATCH
Sterling GBP=D3 nudged higher to $1.3150, just below a
seven-month high hit last week, as polls pointed to a
Conservative victory decisive enough to secure a parliamentary
majority.
Growth data due at 0930 GMT, followed by a YouGov poll due
at 2200 GMT will offer the latest updates on economics and
politics.
"If the UK bookies' prices are a reasonable guide to market
expectations for Thursday's election, it is hard to see much
more upside for GBP on the outcome," said Adam Cole, chief
currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets.
"Despite the confidence with which markets predict a
Conservative victory, there are still several major
uncertainties," he added, pointing to unpredictable turnout and
polling showing a sizeable chunk of undecided voters.

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