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FOREX-Kiwi takes flight as New Zealand's central bank surprises by standing pat

Published 11/13/2019, 10:26 AM
Updated 11/13/2019, 10:32 AM
© Reuters.  FOREX-Kiwi takes flight as New Zealand's central bank surprises by standing pat

* Kiwi soars after RBNZ dashes rate-cut expectations
* Dollar steady elsewhere near multi-week highs
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Tom Westbrook
SINGAPORE, Nov 13 (Reuters) - The New Zealand dollar soared
1% on Wednesday after the country's central bank unexpectedly
left interest rates on hold, while most other currencies trod
water.
"It's flying. Massive surprise," said Imre Speizer, head of
New Zealand strategy at Westpac Bank in Auckland. "There's a lot
of position exiting going on."
Almost all analysts had forecast a cut in the 1% benchmark
rate to a record-low 0.75%, with futures markets having priced
in a better-than-75% chance of a cut as slack spending and a
global slowdown held New Zealand's economic growth at a six-year
low.
The kiwi NZD zoomed almost a cent higher to $0.6403 after
the decision was announced, putting it on track for its steepest
daily gain in a year. Yields on two-year New Zealand bonds
NZ2YT=RR jumped by their most in more than two years.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand said aggressive easing
earlier this year meant current settings were appropriate, but
left the door open for more stimulus. The kiwi later gave up some of its gains to settle around
$0.6395, and moves elsewhere in Asian hours were modest.
"It's all been about the New Zealand dollar," said
Commonwealth Bank FX analyst Joe Capurso.
Against other currencies, the U.S. dollar was only a touch
weaker after U.S. President Donald Trump said in a speech
overnight that a trade deal with China was "close," but failed
to provide any further details.
Hopes for an imminent deal to wind back tit-for-tat tariffs
the world's two largest economies have imposed on each other
have lifted the dollar 1% this week to a one-month high of
98.423 overnight against a basket of currencies .DXY .
It was a touch below that level in Asian trade, though moves
were slight as investors waited for more concrete news.
Trump's speech at the Economic Club of New York mostly
reprised well-worn criticism of the U.S. Federal Reserve for
failing to cut interest rates deeply enough and rhetoric about
China's "cheating" on trade. However his remark that a deal "could happen soon," was
enough to keep the dollar holding most of those recent gains.
"(It) was heavy on rhetoric and light on detail, leaving
markets none the wiser," National Australia Bank's senior FX
strategist Rodrigo Catril said in a note.
Against the Japanese yen JPY= the dollar was a touch
weaker at 108.93 yen - not far below the 5-1/2-month high of
109.48 yen it hit last week.
The dollar scaled a month-high against the euro EUR=
overnight and steadied near that level at $1.012 on Wednesday.
China's yuan weakened past the 7-per-dollar mark after the
speech and fell a little further to 7.0212 per dollar in onshore
trade on Wednesday CNY= .
The British pound GBP= was steady at $1.2850, after a
brief boost from the Brexit Party's decision not to contest
Conservative-held seats at December's election faded.
The Australian dollar AUD=D3 was pinned at $0.6837 by
weak, but largely inline, wages data.
Later on Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is due to
testify on the U.S. economic outlook before the congressional
Joint Economic Committee at 1600 GMT.
The first public hearings in Trump's impeachment inquiry
begin an hour earlier at 1500 GMT.

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