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FOREX-Euro near 4-week low vs dlr as traders look for end to US-China trade war

Published 11/11/2019, 08:10 PM
Updated 11/11/2019, 08:16 PM
© Reuters.  FOREX-Euro near 4-week low vs dlr as traders look for end to US-China trade war

* Japanese yen rises on Hong Kong protest escalation
* British pound up despite Moody's warning, poor economic
data
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

(Updates prices, adds fresh comment)
By Olga Cotaga
LONDON, Nov 11 (Reuters) - The euro held steady against the
U.S. dollar on Monday after matching a four-week low earlier as
the greenback maintained its gains on optimism that the United
States and China would roll back tariffs that have hurt global
growth.
Officials from both countries said late last week that a
rollback of some tit-for-tat tariffs had been agreed as part of
a preliminary deal, that has still to be finalised, aimed at
ending their trade war. Even though that was subsequently denied by U.S. President
Donald Trump on Friday, he did not completely rule out a deal
and U.S. benchmark Treasuries held above a key support level at
1.9%, buoying the currency. US/N
Moves were slight as traders kept a wary eye on further news
on the U.S.-China trade war, and against the safe-haven Japanese
yen the dollar fell as market participants reacted to the
escalating political confrontations in Hong Kong.
"Market participants have become more cautious over the
potential positive impact for global growth from a partial
U.S.-China trade deal following comments from President Trump,"
said Lee Hardman, currency analyst at MUFG.
"Nevertheless, market participants are likely to remain
optimistic that the U.S. and China are moving closer to
finalizing a partial trade deal by the end of this year,"
Hardman said.
The euro traded at $1.1026 EUR=EBS , flat but not far from
the Oct. 15 low of $1.10165 it fell to on Friday.
The Japanese currency was last up 0.3% at 108.93 against the
dollar JPY=EBS .
"The trade resolution is a little positive for the euro,"
said Stephen Gallo, European head of FX strategy at BMO Capital
Markets.
But China is unlikely to ramp up imports from the euro zone,
Gallo said, which means the common currency is unlikely to
benefit from the fact that the United States and China could
decide to end the 16-month long trade war.
"Any bullish reaction in the euro will in our view be a
second, third or fourth order response to a resolution of the
trade war," Gallo said.
He sees euro-dollar stuck between $1.10 and $1.12, he said.
The index which tracks the dollar against six major
currencies was neutral at 98.317, flirting with a four-week
high.
The Chinese yuan weakened 0.3% to 7 per dollar in offshore
trade CNH=EBS on fresh violence in Hong Kong, where police
fired live rounds at protesters, with Cable TV and other media
reporting at least one person being wounded. Disappointing economic data also hurt sentiment toward the
yuan, as China's producer prices fell the most in more than
three years in October, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data
showed on Saturday, while the country's consumer prices rose at
their fastest pace in almost eight years. The UK's main stock index fell sharply on Monday as a
violent day of protest in Hong Kong knocked Asia-exposed
financial stocks. Elsewhere, the British pound was up 0.4% at $1.2825 GBP=D3
despite the fact that Moody's warned on Friday it might again
cut its rating on Britain's sovereign debt. Its rise also came
even as data showed Britain's economy grew at the slowest annual
rate in nearly a decade in the third quarter.

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