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FOREX-Dollar soft after Powell bolsters Fed rate cut bets

Published 07/11/2019, 08:25 AM
Updated 07/11/2019, 08:30 AM
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar soft after Powell bolsters Fed rate cut bets
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* Powell says ready to "act as appropriate"
* Powell, Fed minutes rekindle bets on 50 bp rate cut in
July
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Hideyuki Sano
TOKYO, July 11 (Reuters) - The dollar was soft on Thursday
after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell set the stage for a
rate cut later this month, vowing to "act as appropriate" to
ensure the world's biggest economy will be able to sustain a
decade-long expansion.
In testimony to Congress, Powell pointed to "broad" global
weakness that was clouding the U.S. economic outlook amid
uncertainty about the fallout from the Trump administration's
trade conflict with China and other nations. Adding to a generally dovish tone in his testimony, the
minutes from the Fed's previous policy meeting showed many
policy makers thought more stimulus would be needed soon,
reviving speculation of an aggressive rate cut.
The euro traded at $1.1260 EUR= , little changed in early
Asia after having gained 0.38% the previous day.
The dollar dipped 0.1% to 108.31 yen JPY= , extending its
slide from a six-week high of 108.99 set on Wednesday before
Powell's testimony.
The dollar's index against six major currencies .DXY
=USD slipped about 0.4% on Wednesday, turning negative on the
week, to 97.104.
Money market futures price 0#FF: have jumped to price in
about 30% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points
at its next policy review on July 30-31 - a scenario that had
been priced out after Friday's strong U.S. jobs data.
A 25-basis-point cut is already fully factored in.
"A rate cut in July is completely sealed now. But on the
other hand, Powell dropped little hint on what he would do after
that, as he sounded quite optimistic on the economy," said
Kyosuke Suzuki, director of forex at Societe Generale.
"That uncertainty, I think, will most likely keep the dollar
in fairly tight ranges in coming weeks," he said.
Elsewhere, the British pound also bounced off from six-month
lows to trade at $1.2508 GBP=D4 .
But it is still down on the week as the British currency has
been dogged by Britain's economic gloom and a fast-approaching
Brexit deadline.
A raft of dismal UK data and the risk of crashing out of the
European Union without agreeing transitional trade arrangements
have forced the Bank of England to change its upbeat assessment
of the economy.
In contrast, the Canadian dollar moved closer to last week's
eight-month high, as the Bank of Canada showed no sign that it
would match potential interest rate cuts from the Fed, making
clear it had no intention of easing monetary policy.
The Canadian dollar stood at C$1.3072 per U.S. dollar
CAD=D4 , not far from C$1.3038 touched a week ago.

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