* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh
By Saikat Chatterjee
LONDON, Feb 11 (Reuters) - The dollar held at a four-month
high against its rivals on Tuesday and approached within
striking distance of a 2019 peak as investors eyed the start of
a two-day testimony by the U.S. central bank chief.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments will be widely analysed
for the economic impact of the deadly coronavirus on the U.S.
economy and the outlook for monetary policy in the medium term.
With broader price moves largely subdued, investors resumed
their focus on yield seeking strategies.
Daily price fluctuations or market volatility have fallen
sharply in recent months, prompting investors to borrow in
low-yielding currencies such as the euro and the franc and
invest in dollars or other high-yielding currencies.
While that strategy has faced some setbacks thanks to some
geopolitical events, generally such carry-trade strategies have
proved to be rewarding.
For example, in 2018-2019, when daily price swings for the
euro/dollar exchange rate held at around 3%, a trade involving
borrowing in euros and investing in U.S. dollars would have
generated a return of nearly 5%.
"The dollar benefits from higher interest rate advantage if
volatility is low as the risk-return profile of investing in the
U.S. currency by borrowing in the euro, for example, can be
very attractive," said Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of FX and
commodity research at Commerzbank.
Against a basket of its rivals .DXY , the dollar rose 0.01%
to 98.91, its highest level since early October and less than 1%
away from a 2019 high of 99.67. It has gained 1.6% in the last
week as currency volatility plumbed to record lows.
Van Luu, head of currency and fixed income strategy at
Russell Investments, said a big driver for low market volatility
was central banks wanting to prevent stronger currencies and
intervening to dampen market volatility.
Implied market volatility over the next three months for
euro/dollar EUR=EBS , the most actively traded currency pair
globally, briefly plummeted to a record low of below 4% last
week before creeping higher.
The greenback is also displaying the classical symptoms of
2019 when episodes of risk-off events boosted its appeal while
relatively high interest rate differentials - spreads between 10
year U.S. and German yields are at a two-year high above 200 bps
- proved to be a natural magnet for yield seekers.
Elsewhere, risk sentiment stabilized thanks to a slowdown in
the rate of coronavirus infections even as the death toll
climbed with the Australian dollar rising 0.3% to $0.6709
AUD=D3
China's yuan firmed CNH=D3 to 6.9785 per dollar and the
People's Bank of China held its mid-point guidance relatively
steady, even though the U.S. dollar had gained sharply overnight
CNY=CFXS
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Euro positions and volatility https://tmsnrt.rs/39t5Lyv
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