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FOREX-Dollar edges higher as Treasury yields inch up

Published 03/24/2021, 11:21 PM
Updated 03/24/2021, 11:30 PM
© Reuters.
USD/JPY
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AUD/USD
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USD/SEK
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DX
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US10YT=X
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* Graphic: World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

(Adds analyst quote, new throughout)
By Jessica DiNapoli and Ritvik Carvalho
NEW YORK, March 24 (Reuters) - The dollar edged higher on Wednesday, helped by U.S. Treasury yields
recovering from one-week lows and as concerns about the economic impact of COVID-19 lingering in Europe led
investors to show a preference for the U.S. currency.
The dollar index, which touched a four-month high earlier in the session, was supported by safe-haven
flows as some investors fretted over potential U.S. tax hikes.
The dollar rose against a basket of currencies to 92.5210 =USD . Yields on the 10-year Treasury rose a
bit to 1.642% but stayed below recent highs as investors looked ahead to an auction on Wednesday.
US10YT=RR
“We're kind of sideways right now,” said Ronald Simpson, managing director, global currency analysis, at
Action Economics. "The euro hit a four-month low against the dollar. The rise in COVID in Europe is getting
out of control again."
Euro-dollar was down 0.25% at $1.1820 EUR=EBS on Wednesday.
"Meanwhile U.S. Treasury yields have gone up quite dramatically and have been supportive of the dollar,"
Simpson said.
The overnight flight to safety got an additional nudge when Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told
lawmakers that future tax increases will be needed to pay for infrastructure projects and other public
investments.
Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell are also scheduled to testify to the Senate Banking panel
on Wednesday.
Euro zone business activity unexpectedly grew this month, a preliminary survey showed, but with much of
Europe suffering a third wave of coronavirus infections and renewed lockdown measures, that may not last
through April. IHS Markit's flash composite PMI, seen as a good guide to economic health, climbed above the 50 mark
separating growth from contraction, to 52.5 in March compared with February's 48.8, its highest since late
2018.
The index that measures the dollar's strength against a basket of peer currencies is up nearly 3% year
to date, confounding widely held expectations among analysts for a decline.
Strategists at BCA Research said they believe the U.S. dollar is experiencing a "counter-trend rally
within a bear market."
"Over the near-term, the dollar benefits from two supports. First, the U.S. growth will outperform
thanks to generous fiscal policy and the country's lead in vaccinations. Second, the NASDAQ and other
highflying global equities have been correcting since February, creating some risk-off undertones that help
the counter-cyclical greenback."
"However, real interest rate differentials will ultimately determine the currency's cyclical outlook.
The Fed's commitment to maintaining an accommodative policy will cap upside to U.S. real rates at the short
end of the curve. This will prevent a sharp appreciation in the dollar."
Human rights sanctions on China imposed by the United States, Europe and Britain, which prompted
retaliatory sanctions from Beijing, added to market concerns overnight. The safe-haven yen JPY= rose 0.32% in morning trading in the United States.
Australia's dollar AUD= - considered a liquid proxy for risk - weakened further on Wednesday. The
Aussie slipped to as low as $0.7582, a level not seen since Feb. 5., before recovering.
The British pound weakened as far as $1.3675, also the lowest since early February.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin BTC=BTSP gained 4.11% to $56,503, off a record high of $61,781.83.

Currency bid prices at 10:31 AM (1431 GMT)
Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid
Previous Change
Session
Dollar index =USD 92.5550 92.4090 +0.17% 2.861% +92.6080 +92.3380
Euro/Dollar EUR=EBS $1.1818 $1.1850 -0.26% -3.27% +$1.1854 +$1.1812
Dollar/Yen JPY=D3 108.9100 108.5750 +0.24% +5.37% +108.9500 +108.4750
Euro/Yen EURJPY= 128.71 128.65 +0.05% +1.41% +128.7900 +128.3000
Dollar/Swiss CHF=EBS 0.9363 0.9338 +0.29% +5.86% +0.9369 +0.9337
Sterling/Dollar GBP=D3 $1.3699 $1.3754 -0.39% +0.28% +$1.3755 +$1.3675
Dollar/Canadian CAD=D3 1.2569 1.2588 -0.14% -1.29% +1.2608 +1.2556
Aussie/Dollar AUD=D3 $0.7610 $0.7626 -0.19% -1.06% +$0.7634 +$0.7583
Euro/Swiss EURCHF= 1.1066 1.1067 -0.01% +2.40% +1.1074 +1.1058
Euro/Sterling EURGBP= 0.8625 0.8616 +0.10% -3.49% +0.8645 +0.8614
NZ NZD=D3 $0.6969 $0.7000 -0.49% -3.01% +$0.7008 +$0.6956
Dollar/Dollar
Dollar/Norway NOK=D3 8.5925 8.6385 -0.45% +0.15% +8.6775 +8.5810
Euro/Norway EURNOK= 10.1560 10.2389 -0.81% -2.96% +10.2785 +10.1436
Dollar/Sweden SEK= 8.6022 8.5824 -0.07% +4.95% +8.6363 +8.5795
Euro/Sweden EURSEK= 10.1669 10.1740 -0.07% +0.90% +10.2040 +10.1519



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