* Currencies still driven by tug of war between central
banks
* Focus on upcoming U.S. data
* Mnuchin voices concern about Facebook's Libra
* Bitcoin holds gains, rallies from 2-week low
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh
(Adds new analyst comments, bitcoin, updates prices, FX table)
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, July 15 (Reuters) - The dollar edged higher on
Monday in thin summer trading, with its potential upside limited
by expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at
next week's policy meeting.
Investors expect the Fed to reduce its key rate by 25 basis
points and make another cut in September.
"A 25-basis-point cut is fully priced into the market but
there is currently a 20% chance of a 50-basis-point cut, which
is weighing on the dollar," said Joe Manimbo, senior market
analyst, at Western Union Business Solutions in Washington.
"The data this week could be key in tilting the
probabilities of future rate cuts or a 50-basis-point cut this
July," he added.
U.S. retail sales and industrial production data are due on
Tuesday, while the Fed will release its key Beige Book on U.S.
economic conditions on Wednesday.
Foreign exchange markets were quiet overall on Monday and
volatility low ahead of major central bank policy decisions next
week. The European Central Bank also holds a meeting next week,
with investors expecting a dovish statement.
Money markets have priced in an ECB rate cut of 10 basis
points in September and another one in March. The ECB's meeting
on July 25 may reinforce those expectations.
Forecasts for dovish moves by both the Fed and ECB have kept
euro/dollar stuck in a narrow range for weeks.
In afternoon trading, an index that tracks the dollar
against a basket of six other major currencies .DXY was up
0.2% at 96.956.
The dollar was flat versus the yen at 107.91 JPY= .
The euro EUR= was slightly down at $1.1255, trading within
the recent range of $1.14 to $1.11.
Investors are more bearish on the euro, since U.S. Treasury
yields look set to remain among the highest in developed markets
despite future Fed rate cuts, analysts say.
In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin rallied from two-week
lows to $10,941 BTC=BTSP , up more than 7% on the day.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin on Monday voiced
serious concern that Facebook Inc's FB.O proposed Libra
cryptocurrency could be misused for money laundering, adding to
the growing regulatory skepticism of the social media company's
digital asset plans. nL2N24G0ZN
He added that cryptocurrencies will be discussed at the
upcoming Group of Seven meeting.
Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York,
said despite Mnuchin's concerns, bitcoin held its gains because
the U.S. Treasury's top official did not unveil new regulatory
action that could severely hinder the development of
cryptocurrencies.
Elsewhere, the Australian dollar, the currency most
sensitive to Chinese news, rose to a more than one-week high on
stronger-than-expected economic data from China.
China's industrial output rebounded in June from a 17-year
low in May, while June retail sales surged 9.8% from a year
earlier.
The Aussie AUD=D3 was last up 0.2% at US$0.7036 against
the U.S. dollar, while China's offshore yuan was up 0.1% at
6.8742 yuan per dollar CNH= .
========================================================
Currency bid prices at 3:18PM (1918 GMT)
Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid
Previous Change
Session
Euro/Dollar EUR= $1.1255 $1.1269 -0.12% -1.86% +1.1284 +1.1254
Dollar/Yen JPY= 107.9200 107.8900 +0.03% -2.12% +108.1000 +107.8100
Euro/Yen EURJPY= 121.47 121.60 -0.11% -3.76% +121.8400 +121.4300
Dollar/Swiss CHF= 0.9845 0.9840 +0.05% +0.32% +0.9854 +0.9818
Sterling/Dollar GBP= 1.2517 1.2573 -0.45% -1.88% +1.2579 +1.2511
Dollar/Canadian CAD= 1.3049 1.3029 +0.15% -4.31% +1.3051 +1.3021
Australian/Doll AUD= 0.7036 0.7017 +0.27% -0.18% +0.7038 +0.7009
ar
Euro/Swiss EURCHF= 1.1084 1.1092 -0.07% -1.51% +1.1102 +1.1067
Euro/Sterling EURGBP= 0.8990 0.8960 +0.33% +0.07% +0.9003 +0.8961
NZ NZD= 0.6717 0.6690 +0.40% +0.00% +0.6734 +0.6679
Dollar/DolLar
Dollar/Norway NOK= 8.5383 8.5309 +0.09% -1.16% +8.5497 +8.5236
Euro/Norway EURNOK= 9.6136 9.6137 +0.00% -2.95% +9.6292 +9.6129
Dollar/Sweden SEK= 9.3526 9.3769 -0.40% +4.34% +9.3772 +9.3518
Euro/Sweden EURSEK= 10.5292 10.5710 -0.40% +2.58% +10.5690 +10.5275