🧐 ProPicks AI October update is out now! See which stocks made the listPick Stocks with AI

FOREX-Dollar drifts down as investors eye payrolls and a busy week ahead

Published 12/06/2019, 01:09 PM
Updated 12/06/2019, 01:16 PM
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar drifts down as investors eye payrolls and a busy week ahead
EUR/USD
-
USD/JPY
-
DXY
-

* Dollar beaten up after week of weak data, trade confusion
* U.S. non-farm payrolls eyed; due at 1330 GMT, +180k
expected
* Next week crammed with risk
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Tom Westbrook
SINGAPORE, Dec 6 (Reuters) - The dollar headed for its worst
week since October on Friday, dragged down by nervousness on
trade and hints of weakness in the U.S. economy, with domestic
factors leaving the resurgent kiwi and British pound the main
beneficiaries.
The safe haven of the Japanese yen and Swiss franc were also
in demand as investors fretted that U.S. jobs figures due later
in the day may fall short and braced for a week that brings a
British election, a U.S. Fed meeting and likely news on trade.
"There is a lot of event risk to navigate," said Richard
Franulovich, head of FX strategy at Westpac in Sydney.
"I stand to be corrected here, but I think that next week
could possibly be the most consequential week for global markets
this year."
Movements on Friday were accordingly slight in Asian trade,
but against a basket of currencies .DXY the dollar has dropped
every day this week for a cumulative loss of almost 1%.
U.S. President Donald Trump remained upbeat overnight on
trade and said talks are "moving right along".
Markets are unconvinced, with worries stemming from a lack
of similar enthusiasm from China.
Chinese officials reiterated their stance that some U.S.
tariffs must be rolled back for a deal, something Washington has
given no sign of doing. The focus on U.S. non-farm payrolls, due at 1330 GMT, comes
after dismal data through the week showed weak private payrolls,
soft services activity and a shrinking manufacturing sector.
A Reuters poll shows a forecast of 180,000 jobs being added
in November, and a miss might have the Fed reconsidering its
wait-and-see mode when the committee meets on Tuesday and
Wednesday.
"Markets are in a highly fragile condition at the moment,"
said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in
Sydney.
"So there is a greater potential for an exaggerated move if
we see a big divergence from expectations," he said. "The risk
is in both directions ... below 150,000 or above 210,000 we
could see a significant market reaction."

DOLLAR WEAKNESS, STERLING STRENGTH
This week the greenback has shed 0.8% against the euro
EUR= , to sit at $1.1106 per euro on Friday. The yen JPY= has
also firmed by the same margin, last trading at 108.68 per
dollar.
The best gains have been won by the soaring kiwi and pound.
The kiwi NZD=D3 sat just below a four-month high touched
on Thursday at $0.6559, having gained 2% this week as economic
indicators have turned positive, reducing the likelihood of
monetary easing in February to just 13%. RBNZWATCH
Sterling climbed to a 2-1/2 year high of 84.28 pence against
the euro EURGBP= overnight and has advanced 1.7% against the
dollar this week, last trading at $1.3154 GBP=D3 .
Opinion polls suggest the ruling Conservatives will win an
outright majority in the Dec. 12 election, removing some of the
uncertainty around Britain's exit from the European Union that
has weighed on the currency for years.
Cable has rallied 10% since September lows.
"There's still a bit of nervousness about being too
convinced," said Jim Leaviss, head of fixed income at fund
manager M&G Investments. "But nevertheless cable seems to think
that we do get a clear majority for Boris Johnson," he said.
"That means that we leave the EU on the 31st of January ...
I think the options market was pricing in another 7% upside on a
Conservative victory, and I think that's justified
fundamentally."

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.