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FOREX-Commodity currencies fall as OPEC+ output cuts fail to allay demand anxiety

Published 04/13/2020, 10:57 AM
Updated 04/13/2020, 11:00 AM

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
* Investors react to record oil output cuts
* Oil demand collapsing due to coronavirus
* Pandemic encourages risk-off trades

By Stanley White
TOKYO, April 13 (Reuters) - Commodity currencies slipped
against their safe-haven rivals such as the dollar and yen on
Monday as a record output cut agreed by OPEC and other oil
producing nations failed to offset broader concerns about
slumping global demand.
The greenback drifted higher against its Australian and New
Zealand counterparts, widely seen as barometers for market risk,
in a sign investors remain concerned about the consumption
outlook for commodities.
Financial markets remain on edge over the spread of the
novel coronavirus as severe restrictions on personal movement
drag the global economy into a deep recession.
"The initial reaction suggests that the decline in oil
demand is well ahead of the output cuts that were agreed," said
Yukio Ishizuki, FX strategist at Daiwa Securities in Tokyo.
"This is a negative for oil producers. This also encourages
risk-off trading, which should support the yen."
The dollar rose 0.63% against the Norwegian crown NOK=D3
to 10.25 and 0.51% to 23.45 Mexican pesos MXN=D3 .
Against the Canadian dollar CAD=D3 , the U.S. currency held
steady at C$1.3956.
Trading could be somewhat subdued as financial markets in
Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, and Britain are closed for
the Easter Monday holiday.
Major oil producers agreed to the output cuts on Sunday to
prop up oil markets as the pandemic severely curtailed global
demand. Oil prices had gone into freefall on worries about the virus
and a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, which was seen
straining the budgets of oil producers and hammering the U.S.
shale industry.
Currencies from Norway, Mexico, and Canada - all major oil
producers - got a boost on Friday as the agreement to cut output
began to take shape, but these gains disappeared on Monday as
investors avoided risk assets.
While oil futures erased early losses to trade higher in
Asia, trading in currency markets highlighted investor
trepidation over the prevailing uncertainty in markets.
Other currency traders pointed to a decline in U.S. stock
futures as a supportive factor for risk-off trades.
The cautious mood boosted the yen, which is often sought as
a safe-haven during times of market and economic stress because
of Japan's current account surplus.
The yen JPY=EBS rose 0.33% to 108.15 per dollar in Asia on
Monday and jumped more than 0.4% against the Australian
AUDJPY= and New Zealand currencies NZDJPY= .
In the onshore market, the yuan CNY=CFXS traded at 7.0424
per dollar. The coronavirus first emerged in China late last
year and has dealt the world's second-largest economy a serious
blow.
China is expected to release export data for March on
Tuesday, which will be closely watched for signs of the
pandemic's damage on the global economy.
Against the safe-haven Swiss franc CHF=EBS , the greenback
held steady at 0.9661.
The dollar traded at $1.0928 per euro EUR=EBS , near its
lowest level in more than a week.
Further declines in the dollar may be limited with
speculative net short positions in the U.S. currency having
risen to their highest since May 2018, according to calculations
by Reuters and U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.
The Australian dollar AUD=D3 slipped 0.17% to $0.6338,
pulling back from a four-week high, while the New Zealand dollar
NZD=D3 fell 0.21% to $0.6072 as investors shunned risky
trades.
The pound GBP=D3 held steady at $1.2470 and last fetched
87.67 pence per euro EURGBP=D3 .
Sterling retained gains made after Prime Minister Boris
Johnson left hospital for treatment of COVID-19, the illness
caused by the coronavirus.

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