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惠誉：亚洲发达市场银行受中国经济放缓的冲击将最为严重

Published 08/23/2019, 02:01 PM
Updated 08/23/2019, 02:10 PM
惠誉：亚洲发达市场银行受中国经济放缓的冲击将最为严重


(The following statement was released by the rating agency)


Link to Fitch Ratings' Report(s):

https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10086210

Fitch Ratings-Hong Kong/London/Singapore-August 23: 本文章英文原文最初于2019年8月20日发布于：href="https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/10086216">Fitch Ratings: China
Slowdown Would Hit Banks in Asian Developed Markets Most /a

惠誉在一份新发表的报告中指出，如果中国经济急剧放缓，依赖贸易的亚洲发达市场的银行将面临最大的信贷压力。这些市场中的银行在其所在地区处于承销标准和风险控制水平最高
之列，但经济下行将令其资产质量受到考验，并加剧其已然存在的盈利能力方面的挑战。

惠誉的假设情景模拟了美国对3000亿美元中国输美商品加征25%关税导致中国经济大幅放缓所带来的经济影响。企业在需求走弱时需要减轻资产负债表压力及保持流动性，为此
会大幅收缩投资活动，这种投资冲击大幅加剧了上述关税影响。2020年中国GDP增速将跌至低点，为3.4%（基准场景下该指标为5.9%），然后在2021年回升至4.
2%。

中国经济严重放缓将从三个方面对亚太地区的银行产生影响：中国内地业务遭受直接损失；区域经济走弱导致更广泛的压力；以及全球投资者情绪转为消极所带来的市场风险。

中国内地之外，香港银行业受中国经济放缓的影响最为直接——2018年末对内地债权占香港银行业资产规模的30%。鉴于香港与中国内地的关联程度不断加深，惠誉已将香港银
行经营环境评估结果从'a+'/负面下调至'a'/稳定。新加坡银行受中国经济放缓的直接影响也较大。

受宏观经济连锁反应冲击最严重的还有香港、新加坡、韩国及台湾，因这些国家和地区与中国内地的贸易联系紧密。此外，中国经济严重放缓可能导致房地产市场情绪恶化，加剧承受
能力最紧张的市场的房价调整，尤其是香港和澳大利亚。

亚洲新兴市场通常最容易受到投资者情绪从风险资产和市场转向的影响。相对其国际储备而言，多数亚洲经济体的外部融资需求较小，从而具有应对市场压力的缓冲——但斯里兰卡显
然是个例外，而印度尼西亚该指标的表现也不太稳定。此外，斯里兰卡和印度尼西亚的银行以外币计价的未偿贷款占比很高，因此可能面临货币疲软导致的资产质量风险。

如需了解更多信息，请访问www.fitchratings.com 或点击上文链接参阅报告《Severe China Slowdown Scenario:
Impact on Asia-Pacific Banks》。

联系人：

Dan Martin

区域信用评级主任 - 亚太区

信用政策团队

+65 6796 7232

Fitch Ratings Singapore Pte Ltd.

One Raffles Quay

South Tower #22-11

Singapore 048583

Jonathan Cornish

董事总经理

金融机构评级

+852 2263 9901

David Prowse

高级董事

惠誉快讯

+44 20 3530 1250

Media Relations: Yee Man Ko, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9953,
Email: alanis.ko@thefitchgroup.com

Wai-Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: wailun.wan@thefitchgroup.com

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2452, Email: louisa.williams@thefitchgroup.com.

详情参见www.fitchratings.com

注意：本新闻稿为中文译本。如有疑问，请以英文版本为准。

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