The Federal Reserve “can’t ignore the labor market any longer,” BCA Research said in a Friday report.
With the unemployment rate now above 4%, the Fed is expected to increasingly consider labor market conditions in its near-term policy decisions.
"Our three key labor market indicators (vacancy rate, jobless claims, and nonfarm payrolls) have softened noticeably but are not yet sending an imminent recession signal," the report states.
Despite the lack of such a signal, BCA highlights that the Fed “no longer has the luxury of focusing purely on inflation."
The job vacancy rate, while slightly higher in May, is significantly down from its highs and is within striking distance of BCA’s target of 4.5%.
"For now, this downtrend seems intact," BCA notes, indicating that the vacancy rate data are "flashing yellow, no longer green but not yet red."
Moreover, initial and continuing unemployment insurance claims are presenting mixed signals.
"Continuing claims are running a little hot compared to our benchmark years while initial claims remain consistent with our benchmark," the report states.
BCA also pointed out the monthly nonfarm payroll numbers, which show a decisive downshift in momentum. The economy added 206,000 jobs in June but with significant downward revisions to the prior two months.
If assuming that if this morning’s number is revised downward by 27,000, then the economy has only added an average of 168k jobs per month over the past three months, which is slightly below BCA’s breakeven estimate, the research firm said.
"The higher unemployment rate is the result of both expanding labor supply and a significant slowdown in hiring. Even though layoffs remain depressed, it is becoming increasingly difficult for unemployed people to find new work."
Given these conditions, BCA anticipates that the Fed will likely signal a September rate cut at its meeting later this month, particularly if the upcoming CPI report is soft.