By David Lague and Yew Lun Tian
HONG KONG/BEIJING, Feb 26 (Reuters) - China is expected to
reveal a robust increase in defence spending at the March 5
annual opening of parliament, as its economy rebounds from the
COVID-19 pandemic and military tensions rise, Chinese and
Western security experts said.
With the coronavirus hammering its economy, China last year
announced a 6.6 per cent boost in defence spending to $178
billion, the lowest rate of increase in three decades.
The new administration of President Joe Biden has moved
quickly to remind Beijing that the United States intends to
compete with China's growing influence and military strength in
the Asia-Pacific. In recent weeks, powerful U.S. warship fleets
have sailed near Chinese-claimed Taiwan and through disputed
territory in the South China Sea, to Beijing's anger.
"China is facing the most severe security situation since
the Korean War," said Ni Lexiong, a retired professor at the
Shanghai University of Political Science and Law.
He predicts a substantial hike in China's military budget,
citing U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, regular deployments of U.S.
aircraft carriers off the China coast and the recent presence of
a French warship and nuclear submarine in the South China Sea.
"Looking at public opinion, it has become more urgent to
take back Taiwan militarily. That is why the budget will surely
rise sharply," he said.
Ross Babbage, a non-resident fellow at the Washington-based
Centre for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and former
Australian defence official, expects a rise of about 7%.
"That is less than some people might expect and the reason
for that is the Chinese economy is still not in great shape."
China's economy grew just 2.3% in 2020, although it was the
only major economy not to contract, and is expected to see
growth of 8.4% percent this year, a Reuters poll found.
China's Defence Ministry did not respond to a request for
comment.
UNDERSTATED TOTAL
Many Western experts believe Beijing's real military outlays
are far higher than official figures.
China's published military spending for 2019 was $174
billion adjusted for inflation, or 1.3 per cent of GDP,
according to an annual Pentagon report in September. That
excludes outlays on research and development and foreign weapons
buying, and the Pentagon estimated that real spending in 2019
could be more than $200 billion.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
estimated China spent $261 billion on its military in 2019.
The United States spent $732 billion, or about 3.4% of GDP,
on its military in 2019.
If Beijing does announce a sharp increase, it would signal
an intention to intensify military operations against Taiwan or
assert Chinese sovereignty over other disputed territory in the
South China Sea or East China Sea, Babbage and other Western
analysts said.
Wang Xiangsui, a retired senior colonel in the People's
Liberation Army and a professor at Beihang University in
Beijing, said a rumour last year that the United States was
considering a plan to use MQ-9 drones to attack islands or reefs
in the South China Sea in a so-called "October Surprise" would
have given China a keener sense of crisis about the security
situation.
Beijing took the rumour seriously enough to seek formal
clarification from the Pentagon and subsequently publicised U.S.
denials, he added.
Wang said U.S. moves to restrict Chinese access to military
equipment and technology would force China to invest more on
homegrown research and development.
"The U.S. military wants to preserve its overwhelming
advantage in nuclear and space, and China wants to upset this.
More spending is definitely needed," Wang said.