Mizuho Securities has adjusted its outlook on Ventas (NYSE: NYSE:VTR), a real estate investment trust, by raising its price target to $71.00 from the previous $56.00.
The firm has also reaffirmed its Outperform rating on the stock. The revision in the price target comes amid updated funds from operations (FFO) estimates for the years 2024 and 2025, which are now set at $3.15 and $3.40, respectively. These figures represent a slight decrease from the former estimates of $3.21 and $3.50.
The reduction in FFO forecasts is attributed to two main factors. Firstly, there is an anticipated impact from a rent reduction agreement with Kindred, which is expected to reduce earnings by approximately 1.5 cents in 2024 and an additional 4 cents in 2025. Secondly, the company is facing higher than initially expected interest expenses.
Mizuho's updated price target of $71.00 is based on a 23x multiple applied to Ventas's anticipated 2026 adjusted funds from operations (AFFO). This is an increase from the prior multiple of 19x.
The adjustment reflects Ventas's improved cost of capital, which theoretically enhances the company's capacity to execute more transactions. The ability to engage in more deals is partially factored into the new multiple.
In other recent news, Ventas has entered into a sales agreement that could lead to a potential sale of up to $2 billion in common stock. The agreement involves major financial institutions such as BofA Securities, Inc., J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC.
Ventas has also declared a quarterly dividend of $0.45 per common share, scheduled for payment to shareholders on record by October 1, 2024. Furthermore, the company reported a 7% year-over-year growth in normalized funds from operations per share for the second quarter of 2024, reaching $0.80.
In addition to these financial developments, Ventas has secured new lease agreements with Kindred Healthcare and its parent companies, including ScionHealth, for 23 long-term acute care hospitals. The company also issued and sold $550 million in 5.000% Senior Notes due in 2035, which will be used for general corporate purposes.
Analysts have shown continued interest in Ventas. Deutsche Bank upgraded its price target on Ventas' stock to $70 from $55, maintaining a Buy rating. Similarly, Morgan Stanley raised its price target for Ventas to $57.00 from $52.50, maintaining an Equalweight rating.
InvestingPro Insights
Ventas's recent performance aligns with Mizuho's optimistic outlook. According to InvestingPro data, the company has shown strong growth, with a 10.59% increase in revenue over the last twelve months as of Q2 2024. This growth trend is further supported by an 8.29% quarterly revenue increase in Q2 2024, indicating consistent improvement in the company's financial performance.
InvestingPro Tips highlight that Ventas is a prominent player in the Health Care REITs industry and has maintained dividend payments for 26 consecutive years. This consistency in dividend payments could be particularly attractive to income-focused investors, especially considering the current dividend yield of 2.82%.
The stock's recent performance has been notably strong, with a 55.84% price total return over the past year and a 47.92% return over the last six months. This aligns with Mizuho's decision to raise the price target and maintain an Outperform rating.
It's worth noting that InvestingPro offers 11 additional tips for Ventas, providing investors with a more comprehensive analysis of the company's financial health and market position.
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