On Monday, Humana Inc . (NYSE:HUM) experienced a shift in its stock outlook as Jefferies adjusted its rating from Buy to Hold. The healthcare company also saw its price target significantly reduced to $253 from the previous figure of $419.
This change by the financial services firm stems from concerns regarding the potential impact of Humana’s Stars appeal, which is seen as a critical factor for the company's earnings per share (EPS) by 2026.
The analyst from Jefferies indicated that while the third quarter performance of Humana is anticipated to be satisfactory, any additional issues related to utility could further damage management credibility. Furthermore, the initial comments for 2025 might suggest a less robust margin expansion, adding to the cautious stance.
The forecast incorporates an unsuccessful Stars appeal, which is expected to result in a 2027 EPS that would not surpass the estimated 2024 EPS, even with a recovery.
The revised price target of $253 takes into account the potential outcomes of the Stars appeal, with the analyst applying a probability-weighted approach to the different scenarios. This assessment reflects a recognition of both the positive and negative catalysts that could influence Humana's performance, including the upcoming election and the 2026 Advance rates.
Jefferies' analysis concludes that the balance of potential catalysts for Humana tilts towards the negative side, which has led to the decision to downgrade the stock and lower the price target. The outcome of the Stars appeal, which is likely to be resolved in the first half of 2025, is poised to be a significant determinant of the company's financial trajectory in the coming years.
In other recent news, Humana Inc. has faced substantial changes due to a significant drop in its Medicare Advantage Star Ratings for 2025. Piper Sandler downgraded the stock from Overweight to Neutral, influenced by the decline in star ratings from 94% to 25% of members in plans rated 4.0+ stars.
This drop is largely attributed to Humana's contract H5216, which accounts for about 45% of Humana's total Medicare Advantage enrollment.
Wells Fargo's analysis suggests that Humana could face a revenue headwind of approximately $2.9 billion due to potential risks for certain contracts. This could translate to an $18.93 impact on earnings per share.
In response to these developments, BofA Securities downgraded Humana from Buy to Underperform, citing anticipated revenue impact due to a reduction in bonus payments from Medicare.
However, Barclays and TD Cowen have maintained their Overweight and Buy ratings respectively. Leerink Partners downgraded Humana's stock from Outperform to Market Perform due to future performance concerns stemming from the lower star ratings.
Despite these challenges, Humana is actively exploring options to mitigate the expected revenue headwind for 2026 related to the 2025 Star ratings. These recent developments highlight the evolving landscape for Humana and its stakeholders.
InvestingPro Insights
In light of Jefferies' downgrade of Humana Inc. (NYSE:HUM), recent InvestingPro data provides additional context to the company's current situation. Despite the analyst's concerns, Humana maintains a strong financial position with a market capitalization of $28.9 billion. The company's P/E ratio of 17.27 suggests that it's still valued at a reasonable level relative to its earnings.
InvestingPro Tips highlight that Humana "holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet," which could provide a buffer against potential challenges outlined in the Jefferies report. Additionally, the company "has raised its dividend for 7 consecutive years," demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns even in uncertain times.
However, aligning with the analyst's cautious outlook, another InvestingPro Tip notes that the "stock has taken a big hit over the last week," with data showing a 1-week price total return of -24.22%. This recent decline has pushed Humana's stock to just 45.24% of its 52-week high, potentially reflecting the market's reaction to concerns about the company's future earnings.
For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 9 additional tips that could provide further insights into Humana's financial health and market position.
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