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Is Costco stock overvalued? Roth/MKM flags key concerns despite growth

EditorEmilio Ghigini
Published 09/27/2024, 06:40 PM
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On Friday, an analyst from Roth/MKM increased the price target for Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ:COST) shares, setting it at $755, a rise from the previous target of $676. The firm maintained its Neutral rating on the stock. The adjustment comes despite the analyst's observations of certain operational shifts within the company.

The analyst pointed out several subtle changes in Costco's operations, such as a slight dip in renewal rates and a minor 0.13% year-over-year decline in core gross margin from the third quarter.

Additionally, there were indications that fiscal year 2025 might not exhibit consistent growth. Despite these concerns, the analyst highlighted that the revised price target reflects higher projected numbers for Costco.

Costco's current market performance was noted, with the stock trading at approximately 55 times price-to-earnings and 35 times enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. The analyst emphasized that while the valuation is high, it overshadows several positive aspects of Costco's business.

Among the positive factors mentioned were Costco's robust share gains and the potential for high returns on invested capital, which could be funneled back into the company. Opportunities for expanding the number of Costco units and the company's success in attracting younger households were also recognized as strengths.

In conclusion, the analyst reiterated the Neutral rating but acknowledged the increase in the price target to $755 from $676, based on the anticipation of higher financial figures from Costco. The report reflects a cautious optimism, recognizing the company's strong market position while also noting minor operational fluctuations that could impact its valuation.

In other recent news, Costco Wholesale reported mixed results in its fourth-quarter earnings. The company posted earnings per share (EPS) of $5.29, surpassing both Goldman Sachs and consensus estimates. However, it slightly missed its revenue target, reporting a figure of $79.70 billion. Despite this, same-store sales saw a 6.9% increase, exceeding the anticipated 6.4%.

In response to potential disruptions due to a possible strike at U.S. ports, Costco's CEO, Ron Vachris, outlined extensive contingency plans. Analyst firms responded to these developments with varied stances.

DA Davidson maintained a Neutral rating on Costco shares but increased the price target to $880. Goldman Sachs raised Costco's price target to $995 from $876, maintaining a Buy rating. However, Truist Securities and Redburn-Atlantic both downgraded Costco shares from a "Buy" rating to "Hold" due to valuation concerns.

Citi maintained a neutral stance on Costco, recognizing the company's continued market share gains but expressing caution due to the stock's high valuation. These are the latest developments surrounding Costco Wholesale.


InvestingPro Insights


Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ:COST) has been a topic of discussion among investors, with its current market capitalization standing at a robust $399.64 billion. The company's financial health is underscored by a P/E ratio of 55.9, reflecting investor confidence in its earnings potential. Within the last twelve months up to Q3 2024, Costco has demonstrated a solid revenue growth of 7.75%, with a gross profit margin of 12.5%. These figures highlight the company's ability to maintain profitability and operational efficiency.

InvestingPro Tips reveal that Costco holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet, which is a strong indicator of financial stability. Additionally, the company has consistently paid dividends for 21 consecutive years, with a dividend growth of 13.73% in the last twelve months as of Q3 2024, showcasing its commitment to returning value to shareholders. For those seeking more insights, there are over 15 additional InvestingPro Tips available, providing a deeper dive into Costco's financial nuances and investment potential.

As the company trades near its 52-week high, with a price 97.58% of that peak, investors may find these insights particularly valuable. The InvestingPro Fair Value estimate stands at $659.09, suggesting that the market may be pricing Costco's shares at a premium. Understanding these metrics can help investors gauge the balance between the company's current performance and future expectations.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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