Wednesday, BTIG maintained a Neutral stance on Capital One Financial (NYSE:COF), noting mixed signals in the company's recent credit card and auto loan data. The firm observed a month-on-month improvement in net charge-offs for the card trust data in September, which declined by 24 basis points. Conversely, there was a slight uptick in delinquencies, with 30+ day delinquencies rising by 8 basis points month-on-month.
For the auto loan sector, the data appeared more stable, with both delinquencies and losses described as benign. Most vintages, except for the 2019 series, showed minimal increases in 30-89 day delinquency rates and a negligible rise in net charge-offs (NCOs).
Reviewing the third quarter of 2024, the firm anticipates that NCOs for Capital One's card business should show an approximate 30 basis point improvement quarter-on-quarter. This projection is based on the combined data from July and August's total portfolio and September's trust data.
However, the auto loan segment presents a contrast, with expected losses increasing by about 30 basis points quarter-on-quarter, assuming September's figures remain consistent with those of the previous months.
Capital One's stock is currently trading in line with the average of its peers in the credit card industry. BTIG mentioned the potential merger between Capital One and Discover Financial (NYSE:DFS), both rated Neutral by the firm.
The completion of this merger could lead to an increase in Capital One's shares, as it is expected to receive a blended payments multiple, potentially positioning the company within a mid-teens price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple range. It is important to note that BTIG does not assign price targets to stocks that it rates Neutral.
In other recent news, Capital One Financial Corp (NYSE:COF) reported Q2 earnings of $597 million and adjusted earnings per share of $3.14, indicating a modest growth in loans, deposits, and revenue. The company also successfully closed a $2 billion public offering of Fixed-to-Floating Rate Senior Notes due in 2030 and 2035.
Barclays updated its outlook on Capital One Financial, increasing the price target to $158.00 from $154.00, while maintaining an Equal-weight rating on the stock. Barclays sees potential long-term growth for Capital One, particularly with the upcoming acquisition of DFS.
BofA Securities maintained a Buy rating on Capital One's stock, raising the price target to $161 from $158, and Citi initiated its coverage of Capital One with a Buy rating and a price target of $190.
The company has allocated a substantial provision of $3.9 billion for credit losses and reports a common equity Tier 1 capital ratio of 13.2%. Despite a decrease in liquidity reserves to $123 billion, the company remains optimistic about its operations and expects a modest decrease in the operating efficiency ratio for 2024.
These are recent developments that reflect the company's strategic approach in the financial landscape.
InvestingPro Insights
Capital One Financial's recent performance aligns with BTIG's mixed outlook. According to InvestingPro data, the company's stock is trading near its 52-week high, with a price at 98.09% of its peak. This strength is further evidenced by the impressive 64.4% total return over the past year.
InvestingPro Tips highlight Capital One's position as a prominent player in the Consumer Finance industry, which is particularly relevant given BTIG's analysis of the company's credit card and auto loan data. The company's valuation implies a strong free cash flow yield, potentially indicating efficient capital management despite the mixed credit performance noted by BTIG.
Investors should note that Capital One has maintained dividend payments for 30 consecutive years, demonstrating financial stability. However, an InvestingPro Tip cautions that the company suffers from weak gross profit margins, which could be a concern in light of the fluctuating charge-off and delinquency rates mentioned in the BTIG report.
For those seeking a deeper understanding of Capital One's financial health and prospects, InvestingPro offers 5 additional tips and a comprehensive set of financial metrics to inform investment decisions.
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