On Friday, BofA Securities adjusted its stance on Temenos AG (TEMN:SW) (OTC: TMSNY) stock, downgrading it from Buy to Neutral and revising the price target downward to CHF68.00 from the previous CHF89.00. This change comes in response to the company's performance in the most recent quarter.
The revised price target reflects a decrease from the former CHF89.00 ($98.00) to CHF68.00 ($76.00) due to lowered mid-term forecasts. Temenos AG's second-quarter revenues fell short of expectations by 3%, following a 5% shortfall in the first quarter. The analyst pointed to a particularly weak subscription growth as the primary driver behind this underperformance.
Despite the fact that Temenos shares are currently trading at 14 times the 2024 expected value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EV/EBITDA), which is favorable compared to the long-term average of 21 times, the analyst expressed concerns about the medium-term outlook for the company. The uncertainties stem from the anticipated changes as new CEO JP Brulard focuses on reinvesting in product development and market strategies.
The firm's outlook is also cautious due to the lack of evidence supporting the initial thesis that banks would become more receptive to third-party software solutions. Additionally, the analyst anticipates that the growth of Software as a Service (SaaS) will likely continue to disappoint, especially given a challenging funding environment for Fintech companies. Consequently, the analyst has adjusted the mid-term growth forecast for Temenos to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6%, which falls below the sector average of 9%.
In other recent news, Temenos AG has been in the spotlight due to significant changes in its financial outlook and stock rating. The company reported a second-quarter total software licensing revenue for 2024 at $102 million, indicating a 1% decrease year-over-year. This downturn, largely attributed to a report by Hindenburg Research, resulted in a substantial 50% drop in term license sales.
Furthermore, these developments have led to a revision in Temenos's full-year 2024 outlook. The company now anticipates total software licensing growth to range between 3% and 6%, a downward adjustment from the previously estimated 7% to 10%. The expected annual recurring revenue growth has also been reduced to 13% from the initial forecast of 15%.
On the analyst front, CFRA has maintained a Sell rating on Temenos stock, despite raising the price target to CHF56.00 from the previous CHF52.00. This adjustment reflects a valuation based on a forward P/E of 18.9x for 2024, significantly lower than the firm's three-year historical average P/E of 24.9x.
CFRA's analysis suggests that Temenos may face a challenging year in 2024 due to volatile operating conditions and an uncertain macroeconomic outlook that may limit banking sector IT spending, thereby constraining the company's near-term growth prospects.
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