Thailand's 2020 rice exports forecast to fall to lowest in seven years

By Patpicha Tanakasempipat and Panarat Thepgumpanat
BANGKOK, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Thailand's rice exports in 2020
are forecast to drop to their lowest in seven year, the
country's rice exporters group said on Thursday, as the strong
baht reduces the competitiveness against other shippers.
Exports from Thailand, the world's second-biggest exporter
of the commodity after India, are expected to drop to 7.5
million tonnes this year, the Thai Rice Exporters Association
said. That would be the lowest volume since Thailand exported
6.6 million tonnes of rice in 2013.
The grim forecast came after Thailand fell short of its
initial 2019 target by exporting 7.8 million tonnes of rice last
year.
Thai rice export volumes have declined for two consecutive
years since hitting a record 11.60 million tonnes in 2017.
"We're being optimistic when we give the 7.5 million tonnes
forecast," Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the
exporters association, told Reuters.
"This year looks worse than the last, because of even more
apparent price differences."
Thai benchmark 5% broken rice RI-THBKN5-P1 prices have
remained high well into 2020, after trading significantly higher
than the Vietnamese variety throughout 2019 mainly because the
baht rose in value relative to other currencies. Thai prices
were about $75 a tonne higher than Vietnamese cargoes last week.
The baht was Asia's strongest-performing currency in 2019,
appreciating by nearly 9%. It is currently trading near the
highest in more than six years. THB=TH
Drought - which has been declared in 18 provinces in the
central, northern and northeastern farming regions - also
threatens to reduce supply in 2020, driving up local rice
prices.
Thailand's dry season started in November and usually lasts
through April, although authorities said it could go on through
June this year.
Earlier this month, the U.S. Department of Agriculture
estimated Thailand's total output this year at 18.5 million
tonnes of milled rice, down 9% from last year.
Last year, Thailand's commerce ministry gave a similar
forecast for 2020 rice exports of 8 million tonnes.