* Exports could fall to 10-11 mln T from 12 mln T -Olam exec
* Indian rice expensive due to higher paddy prices
* White rice exports nearly halt, parboiled falling
By Rajendra Jadhav
MUMBAI, July 26 (Reuters) - India's rice exports are likely
to fall to their lowest level in seven years, industry
officials say, as weak demand from African countries weighs and
shippers absorb the absence of government incentives that
supported previous sales.
Lower shipments from India will help rivals such as Vietnam
and Myanmar in raising their exports, according to Indian
exporters, but could also force Prime Minister Narendra Modi's
government to increase buying from farmers, even as it struggles
to liquidate last year's stocks.
"Inventories have been piled up in Africa," said Nitin
Gupta, vice president for Olam India's OLAM.SI rice business.
"A lot of Indian demand has been diverted to Myanmar and China
as Indian prices are out of parity."
The south Asian country could export 10 to 11 million tonnes
of rice in the fiscal year 2019/20 that started on April 1,
Gupta said.
India exported 11.95 million tonnes of rice in 2018/19
through March 31, down 7.2% from the previous 12 months, even
though the country provided incentives for exports of
non-basmati rice for four months. The country exports non-basmati rice to mainly Bangladesh,
Nepal, Benin and Senegal, and premier basmati rice to Iran,
Saudi Arabia and Iraq. In basmati rice exports, India competes
with Pakistan, while in non-basmati rice exports rivals are
Thailand, Vietnam and Myanmar.
The government incentives for exports were temporary and
discontinued on March 25, said B V Krishna Rao, president of the
Rice Exporters Association (REA). "The incentive needs to be
restored quickly," he said, "otherwise there could be huge drop
in the exports this year."
India's rice exports in April-May fell 30% from a year ago
to 1.58 million tonnes as shipments of non-basmati rice fell
more than 50% to 711,837 tonnes, according to data compiled by
Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development
Authority.
Shipments of white rice from India have nearly stopped
altogether as Vietnam and Myanmar are offering more than $30 per
tonne discount over Indian prices, said Gupta.
In parboiled rice, India has been trying to compete with
Thailand but couldn't reduce export prices due to higher paddy,
or unhusked rice, prices, said Himanshu Agarwal, executive
director at Satyam Balajee, India's biggest rice exporter.
Paddy buying by central and state governments have lifted
prices in the open market, making it difficult for exporters to
compete profitably in the world market, said Agarwal.
The central state of Chhattisgarh, a leading rice producer,
raised the minimum paddy buying price to 2,500 rupees ($36.20)
per 100 kg in 2018, from 1,750 rupees - a 43% jump.
Indian exporters said the aggressive liquidation of old
stocks by China, the world's biggest rice producer, has also hit
Indian exports.
"China is exporting a huge amount of old rice to African
markets. Africa being a major client, volumes have significantly
dropped from India," said Agarwal.
($1 = 69.0550 Indian rupees)