By Peter Nurse
Investing.com - Oil markets fell Tuesday, amid concerns that the recent rise in prices is running ahead of the global recovery in demand.
At 8:20 AM ET (1220 GMT), U.S. crude futures traded 0.6% lower at $37.95 a barrel. The international benchmark Brent contract fell 0.8% to $40.47.
Oil has doubled since April as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed to massive output curbs in May and June, extending this agreement by an extra month last weekend.
However, "the collapse in (refining) margins to unprecedented lows is reflective of both over-valued crude prices as well as a more moderate demand recovery,” analysts at Goldman Sachs said, in a note dated Monday.
With demand expectations running ahead of a more gradual and still uncertain rebound, the oil market faces a big challenge of normalising a billion barrels of excess inventories, analysts at the bank wrote.
Morgan Stanley tends to agree.
The oil price rally in recent weeks “appears mostly supply- rather than demand-driven, and it is questionable how strong refinery runs can increase against this backdrop,” the investment bank said in a note on Monday.
Late Monday, the World Bank predicted that the coronavirus will cause global economic output to contract by 5.2% in 2020, a far bigger drop than the 3.0% predicted in April by the International Monetary Fund.
Throw in additional supply from Libya, with the National Oil Corporation lifting force majeure on exports from the Sharara and El Feel fields, and the outlook is starting to look bearish.
Finally, the EIA will be publishing its monthly Short Term Energy Outlook later today, where the focus will be on its estimates for U.S. crude oil production. In the previous report, the EIA estimated that U.S. oil output would average 11.69 million barrels a day in 2020, and 10.9 million barrels a day in 2021.