TD Cowen sees upside for United Airlines shares with robust tailwinds driving growth

EditorAhmed Abdulazez Abdulkadir
Published 01/06/2025, 11:40 PM
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On Monday, TD Cowen's analysts increased their price target on United Continental (NASDAQ:UAL) shares, moving the goal from $125.00 to $142.00 while maintaining a Buy rating. According to InvestingPro data, analysts maintain a strong consensus Buy rating of 1.46, with price targets ranging from $36 to $150. The firm anticipates United Continental to announce its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings on January 21, 2025, with the conference call to follow the next morning.

The analysts project that United had a robust quarter, benefiting from strong international demand and positive domestic supply dynamics. This optimism is supported by the company's strong financial performance, with InvestingPro showing impressive returns of 129% over the past year and revenue reaching $56 billion in the last twelve months. They expect the airline to post an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.99 for the fourth quarter, slightly above the Bloomberg consensus of $2.95.

Revenue and key performance indicators (KPIs) are also forecasted to surpass consensus estimates, with an anticipated adjusted EBIT margin of 10.4%, compared to the Street's expectation of 9.9%.

TD Cowen has revised its estimates for United Continental upwards for the years 2025 and 2026, citing momentum in pricing, fuel costs, and specific advantages unique to United. The company currently trades at a P/E ratio of 11.75x and has generated $7.48 billion in EBITDA over the last twelve months. For deeper insights into United Continental's valuation and growth potential, InvestingPro subscribers have access to over 30 additional financial metrics and exclusive ProTips.

The consensus estimates for fuel prices in 2025 and 2026 are pegged at $2.53 and $2.54 per gallon, respectively. However, TD Cowen's analysts suggest that fuel costs may be approximately 10 cents lower next year and predict the company's operating margin to expand by nearly 200 basis points in 2025. They forecast a 1.7% growth in revenue per available seat mile (RASM) and a 1.8% increase in cost per available seat mile excluding fuel (CASMex).

The new price target of $142 is based on approximately 10.4 times TD Cowen's 2025 adjusted EPS estimate for United Continental. The airline has been named TD Cowen's Best Idea for 2025, indicating strong confidence in the company's performance in the upcoming year.

In other recent news, United Airlines has made significant updates to its bylaws, strengthening director eligibility and stockholder participation.

The changes, aimed at aligning the airline's bylaws with current Delaware law and practices, are a part of a periodic review. On the financial front, United Airlines recorded a 2.5% year-over-year increase in Q3 2024 revenue, hitting $14.8 billion.

Meanwhile, the airline industry is expected to benefit from a 20% drop in Brent crude oil prices, potentially leading to a net profit of $31.5 billion in 2024. The industry is also witnessing a surge in demand in the air cargo market, further boosting airline traffic.

In regulatory news, the US Transportation Department is considering a proposal requiring airlines to compensate stranded passengers with a minimum of $200 in cash if delays or cancellations are within the airline's control.

Analysts have been positive about United Airlines' prospects. Citi has raised its price target for the airline, maintaining a Buy rating due to potential revenue growth. TD Cowen and Goldman Sachs have also expressed confidence, maintaining a Buy rating and increasing their price targets.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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