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Sally Beauty stock outlook improves as underperforming stores close, risks balance out

EditorEmilio Ghigini
Published 11/15/2024, 05:00 PM
SBH
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On Friday, Sally Beauty Holdings (NYSE:SBH) stock received an upgrade from Raymond (NS:RYMD) James, with its stock rating shifting from Underperform to Market Perform.

The adjustment comes as the company has implemented various initiatives aimed at achieving more consistent sales growth and modest margin expansion over the medium term. The firm noted Sally Beauty's valuation as undemanding and highlighted the reduction of leverage to 2x.

The company has recently completed the closure of a significant number of its underperforming stores, which is expected to align its comparable store sales and overall sales more closely.

Sally Beauty is also in the process of considering updates to two-thirds of the remaining Sally Beauty stores and is expanding regional distribution through its Beauty Systems Group (BSG).

While acknowledging that the biggest challenges appear to be behind the company, the analyst pointed out that growth remains low and the consumer environment is tough, particularly for Sally Beauty's core demographic of lower to middle-income consumers. The firm also cited the company's e-commerce presence, which is currently less than 10% of sales, as a factor that may prevent margins from returning to pre-COVID levels.

Despite these concerns, the analyst believes that the risk-reward profile for Sally Beauty has become more balanced. The company's strategic moves and the closing of underperforming stores are seen as steps in the right direction, although the analyst maintains a cautious outlook on the company's growth prospects and margin recovery.

In other recent news, Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. reported a beat on earnings expectations for its fiscal fourth quarter, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.50, surpassing analyst estimates of $0.48. Revenue for the quarter was $935.03 million, marginally below the consensus forecast of $935.88 million, but showed a 1.5% increase YoY.

The company's consolidated comparable sales rose 2.0% in Q4, spurred by a 2.6% increase in its Sally Beauty Supply segment and a 1.3% boost in the Beauty Systems Group.

Sally Beauty's adjusted operating margin expanded 80 basis points to 9.4% in Q4. The company generated $111 million in cash flow from operations, funds which were allocated towards debt repayment, share repurchases, and a strategic acquisition.

In light of recent developments, Sally Beauty has projected a positive outlook for fiscal 2025, expecting consolidated net sales and comparable sales to remain flat or increase up to 2% compared to the prior year. The company also predicts a full-year adjusted operating margin in the range of 8.5% to 9.0%.

InvestingPro Insights

Sally Beauty Holdings' recent upgrade from Raymond James aligns with several positive indicators from InvestingPro data. The company's stock has shown significant momentum, with a 51.26% price return over the past year and a 26.08% return in the last six months. This performance is reflected in the InvestingPro Tip noting that SBH is trading near its 52-week high, currently at 97.8% of that peak.

The company's valuation appears attractive, with a P/E ratio of 8.76, suggesting it may be undervalued relative to its earnings. This could support Raymond James' view of an "undemanding" valuation. Additionally, SBH's liquid assets exceeding short-term obligations, as highlighted by an InvestingPro Tip, indicates a solid financial position, which aligns with the analyst's note on reduced leverage.

While the analyst mentions challenges in the consumer environment, particularly for SBH's core demographic, it's worth noting that InvestingPro Tips indicate the company has been profitable over the last twelve months and analysts predict profitability for the current year. This suggests some resilience in SBH's business model despite market headwinds.

For investors seeking more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 7 additional tips for Sally Beauty Holdings, providing a deeper understanding of the company's financial health and market position.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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