On Tuesday, Piper Sandler provided insights on the beverage industry, highlighting the potential for growth in emerging markets and the increasing share of commercial beverages.
The firm noted that companies like The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:NYSE:KO), Keurig Dr Pepper (NASDAQ:KDP), and PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP) are positioned to benefit from these trends. Coca-Cola, in particular, was singled out for its leading global brands and effective execution, which could lead to sustainable growth and market share gains. Piper Sandler's analysis pointed to Coca-Cola's significant brand investment and expected pricing momentum, especially from emerging markets, as key factors in its favorable outlook.
The firm also acknowledged PepsiCo's challenges with its beverage business but recognized the strength of its Frito-Lay division and the opportunity presented by the recent pullback in PepsiCo's share price. Despite some risks, the valuation was deemed attractive. For Keurig Dr Pepper, Piper Sandler expressed caution due to recent increases in coffee input costs and soft pricing momentum in the category. While acknowledging KDP's potential for accelerated growth in the second half of 2025 and into 2026 from its distribution of Ghost, the firm preferred to wait for better visibility on cost pressures and pricing strategies before becoming more constructive on the stock.
The report detailed the dynamics within the Liquid Refreshment Beverages (LRBs) market in the United States, which has seen significant retail sales. Soda and energy drinks were identified as the largest share gainers, with Coca-Cola and Keurig Dr Pepper's U.S. portfolios positioned for better growth compared to PepsiCo's, based on category momentum. Additionally, the shift in consumer preferences towards healthier, sugar-free alternatives was noted, with diet soda and sugar-free energy drinks driving category growth. Keurig Dr Pepper's recent acquisition of a majority stake in the zero-sugar energy drink brand Ghost was mentioned, with the deal expected to close in the first quarter of 2025.
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