On Thursday, Jefferies made a notable change to its rating for HelloFresh SE (ETR:HFGG) (HFG:GR) (OTC: HLFFF) stock, shifting from a "Hold" to a "Buy" status. The firm also increased its price target for the meal kit company's shares to €16.50, up from the previous target of €7.50. The upgrade comes as HelloFresh (OTC:HLFFF) trades at $12.00, showing impressive momentum with a 101% gain over the past six months.
According to InvestingPro analysis, the company appears undervalued based on its proprietary Fair Value model. The adjustment reflects a more optimistic view of the company's financial performance, with Jefferies highlighting HelloFresh's transition into a mature free cash flow (FCF) compounder.
According to Jefferies, HelloFresh is expected to exhibit mid-single digit top-line growth and mid-teens EBITDA growth. This projection stands in contrast to the market's current expectations, which suggest a 0% perpetuity growth and steady-state margins around 7%. The firm's analysis indicates a higher margin of approximately 8% by FY28. Current financial metrics support this optimistic view, with InvestingPro data showing impressive gross profit margins of 62.74% and analysts forecasting positive earnings for FY2024.
Jefferies points out that HelloFresh's focus on absolute FCF generation and the company's current leverage ratio, which is close to 1x, could lead to an extension of its current stock buybacks and possibly the initiation of a dividend stream by FY27, potentially yielding around 10%.
The presence of an activist investor since August 2024 is seen as a factor that may curb the company's risk of reverting to a growth-at-all-costs approach. Jefferies' valuation model suggests that HelloFresh, as an operator of scale and quality, is currently undervalued. The firm believes that HelloFresh should trade at a multiple closer to 6.5x, which is implied by the discounted cash flow (DCF)-based price target of €16.50.
Jefferies has materially upgraded its EBITDA and FCF forecasts for HelloFresh across the forecast period. This optimistic outlook is based on the firm's analysis of the company's growth prospects and financial health, indicating a stronger performance than what is currently priced into the market.
For deeper insights into HelloFresh's valuation and growth potential, InvestingPro subscribers can access comprehensive Pro Research Reports, which include detailed financial analysis and 13 additional ProTips that could impact investment decisions.
In other recent news, HelloFresh SE has been making notable strides in its financial performance and strategic direction. JPMorgan recently upgraded HelloFresh stock from Neutral to Overweight following the company's impressive financial performance, which included a 71% EBITDA beat on pre-announced third-quarter results.
The company's strategic shift towards customer retention in the meal-kit sector has been yielding positive results, with a reported 40% year-over-year increase in ready-to-eat orders.
HelloFresh SE has also been focusing on capital expenditure reductions to enhance future free cash flow. The company's recent financial growth profile, characterized by stability, high margins, and increased free cash flow generation, has been recognized by JPMorgan.
UBS also upgraded the stock rating for HelloFresh from Sell to Neutral, reflecting the company's recent operational adjustments and improved profitability. The company's first half of the year showed a 2% year-over-year increase in revenue, reaching €1.8 billion. Despite a 9% decline in the meal kit segment, the ready-to-eat segment saw nearly 40% year-over-year growth.
HelloFresh SE plans to further enhance customer retention and satisfaction through the launch of the Hello Fresh PLUS loyalty program in 2025. These are among the recent developments for HelloFresh, which remains cautiously optimistic about the long-term potential of the meal kit market. More detailed forecasts are expected to be released in March 2025.
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