ING Economic and Financial Analysis

USD: A delicate balance Another day and another piece of positive US activity data. Yesterday saw a strong January retail sales release. Though boosted by warmer weather, the data still positively...

Data steepens the curves from the back endRates were pressured higher on the back of the much-better-than-expected retail sales data. A potential weather-related bounce in the data for January had...

Energy - Higher Demand for OPEC Oil Oil prices settled lower yesterday as the market digested the US SPR release announcement, while the YoY US CPI print also came in above expectations, which will...

A key takeaway from the recent fluctuations in major G10 pairs is that, at this stage, data matters much more than central bank communication. The mass of hawkish comments - ranging from modest to...

Through the recent gyrations, markets seem to lack the conviction needed to push new lows in rates. The resulting range-trading environment brings lower rates of volatility and better risk appetite....

The oil market rallied yesterday partly driven by supply concerns related to the halting of operations at the Ceyhan export terminal. However, these worries should subside with Turkey ordering the...

Jay Powell did not rock markets as he acknowledged more strong data can imply a higher peak rate but still appeared to be hanging on to the disinflation story. The dollar still faces moderate upside...

The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate range 25bp to 4.5%-4.75% and indicated it isn’t finished yet. With the economy losing momentum, the jobs market showing tentative signs of cooling, and...

US market rates fell after the Federal Reserve decision but this looks more like a market positioning effect than anything specific from the meeting. Expect some retracement. Both the European Central...

The dollar has broken to new lows for the year after a relaxed-sounding Fed Chair Powell said there were the first clear signs of disinflation. He also failed to push back too aggressively on lower...

US Dollar: Action kicks off tomorrowThe dollar starts the week in very narrow ranges and not far from the lows of the year. This week will stress test the consensus view amongst investors that i) the...

Energy - Specs Boost Buying Price action in oil over the last week was rangebound with the market awaiting this week’s OPEC+ meeting and the return of China from the Lunar New Year holidays....

Energy prices traded lower last week with macro pressures proving too much for markets. However, supply concerns remain, not just in the energy complex, but across the broader commodity spaceEnergy:...

As markets price the Fed's peak rate almost at 5.0%, US housing data will be watched this week. A housing downturn is likely considered a "necessary evil" now, but the pace of the drop may start to...