ING Economic and Financial Analysis

It was a mixed set of data for the oil market yesterday. The IEA report was fairly neutral with both supply and demand growth estimates increasing by 0.2MMbbls/d. The weekly report from the EIA was...

Markets are understandably skittish about the health of the financial sector, which allows bonds to act as a safe haven. We would be wary of acting on large market moves ahead of a week heavy in event...

Yesterday’s risk-off move dragged commodities lower. And with little in the way of oil-related releases this week, oil price direction is likely to continue to be dictated by external...

USD: Be careful chasing the dollar reboundThe release of quarterly earnings in the US continues to paint a better picture for American corporates, with big tech companies beating estimates yesterday....

The most aggressive central bank tightening cycle for decades is reaching its finale. This is our definitive guide to global central banks as we enter another round of crucial meetings over the next...

We assess this year's market themes against our 2023 outlook calls. Rates remain range-bound, and curves have only steepened moderately, but rates differentials keep narrowing. We expect little...

As key central bank meetings draw closer, markets appear to favor European currencies to the detriment of the dollar, whose rate advantage is being eroded. The two-year EUR-USD swap rate differential...

As higher-for-longer gains further traction, yield curves are bear flattening again. Only moderately, though, as risk sentiment holds up with the acute banking crises fading from viewHigher-for-longer...

The commodities complex came under pressure yesterday with a stronger USD weighing on markets. Demand also remains a key concern for the oil market, while for grain markets, a resumption of Black Sea...

The Hungarian forint sold off 2% yesterday after a local central banker surprised markets by suggesting Hungary could make preparations to start easing interest rates. Central banks in Eastern Europe...

The US Federal Reserve could soon deliver the last hike of the current cycle. While United States 10-Year yields have seen their peak already, it will need the imminent prospect of rate cuts to...

US yields are rising across the curve but T-bills are at the intersection of a better economic outlook and a debt ceiling. Sterling rates are now offering a pick-up to dollar equivalents. This makes...

With two weeks to go before the Fed and ECB meetings, central bank speakers have their last chances to steer market expectations before the quiet periods start. However, it appears markets have fully...

Chinese GDP data was better than expected, while other Chinese activity data was also strong. The data releases helped to push metal prices higher, however, oil was more rangeboundEnergy- Strong...

Oil prices came under pressure yesterday on the back of a stronger USD.Energy - Progress on Northern Iraqi Oil ExportsOil prices started the trading week on a weak footing. ICE Brent settled 1.8%...

Markets are still waiting for the data smoking gun that proves that a recession is coming and that inflation is a problem of the past. Until then, rates should continue to rise toward the top of their...