Inflation has come down a great deal from its peak, but what if — in a total plot twist from the Fed's plan — disinflation is what turns out to be transitory?
Certainly, there are important dynamics in commodities markets today that threaten to make the Fed’s job much harder.
In addition, a rising dependency ratio represents a structural tailwind to the inflationary impulse.
Meanwhile, the inflation already incurred by the economy may soon threaten the integrity of the “soft landing” narrative.
Of course, the message from the bond market has not wavered. And, unlike economists, it has a perfect track record.
Perhaps it’s time for the “stagflation” narrative to make a comeback.