Market Overview

Hedge funds are often called fast or smart money because they are one step ahead of herd market thinking.I am blessed with the opportunity to have several of them as clients, and pick up their brains...

Friday night saw Wall Street break the trend and pull back slightly as other bourses finished a strong trading week. The USD remains on the ropes against almost all the undollars, with Euro hovering...

Recession odds have climbed considerably since Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress and the latest FOMC meeting. However, the recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse, as...

The Consumer Price Index eased more than expected in March, providing fresh evidence that pricing pressure has peaked and inflation remains on track to decelerate further in the months ahead. The core...

Gold prices are on the move after the US CPI data has finally eased off and printed the reading of 5% against the expectations of 5.1%. Traders have taken this news as an indicator that the Fed is...

Recession forecasts for the US continue to swirl, but the risk still looks low from the perspective of expectations for the first-quarter GDP report that’s scheduled for April 27, when the...

When the yield curve flattens and eventually inverts, you worry. But it’s when a recession hits, the Fed cuts rates and the curve steepens that you become s**t scared.Yield curve...

I must say that it is discouraging how often I have to write about the Phillips Curve.The Phillips Curve is a very simple idea and a very powerful model. It simply says that when labor is in short...

The expected long-run return for the Global Market Index (GMI) held steady at 6.0% annualized in March, unchanged from last month and close to its trailing performance over the past decade. The...

Asset classes made a comeback in March, led by inflation-indexed government bonds ex-US, based on a set of ETF proxies. The downside outlier: real estate shares in the US and around the world.The...

Learn 4 essential tips that can make the difference between profits and losses

As the Fed tightens monetary policy, a banking crisis is historically the first evidence that something was breaking. As noted recently in “Not QE,” “Last week, amid a rash of bank...

After the US regional banking crisis and the forced takeover of Credit Suisse sent shockwaves through global markets, concerns over the risk of contagion rippled across the financial sector. Fears may...

Yesterday’s post reviewed the mixed signals for US recession risk based on CapitalSpectator.com’s proprietary business-cycle indexes. Today’s follow-up will take a deeper look...