Stocks finished the day higher, rising about 1.1%. It didn’t take much—just word that President Trump would delay auto tariffs by a month. But in a negative gamma environment, momentum can build quickly, and once it starts, it’s just a matter of finding a resistance level to stop it. yesterday, that was around 5,850. 
In case no one was paying attention, the Germany 10-Year Bund surged by 30 bps yesterday. Yes, 30 bps. Put differently, that’s a 2.5% drop in the Bund’s price—a jaw-dropping move. It makes me wonder if there will be some fallout from a shift like that.
It wasn’t just Germany either; rates in France and Italy were up just as much.
Meanwhile, the US 10-year rose by five bps, climbing back to 4.29%. It’s hard to imagine rates in Europe and Japan continuing to increase while U.S. rates plunge—historically, that’s not how it works. For now, the 10-year has found support at 4.15% and managed to break back above the downtrend. A move back to the 4.5% region this week doesn’t seem far-fetched, especially if initial jobless claims come in strong today, followed by a solid jobs report on Friday.
Oil continues its decline, and now comes the real test—it’s back to $66, a key level that has acted as support and resistance since 2019. Good luck.
Another key question is whether oil can continue to fall now that the dollar is dropping like a stone and rates in Europe are rising. At this point, it’s unclear how this all plays out, especially with the ECB meeting today. Much has changed now that Germany plans to increase its debt and fiscal spending.