Chart Of The Day: Ethereum Fundamentals, Technicals Totally Out Of Sync

Since early 2020, when Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin announced there would be an upgrade coming to the Ether network, crypto bulls have been keeping an eye on the second largest digital token by market cap. Dubbed Ethereum 2.0, Buterin promised it would be a "game-changer" for Ethereum's blockchain, lowering transaction fees and boosting scalability.

The upgrade rollout has been gradual and is expected to finally be fully launched sometime during the second quarter of 2022. According to CoinDesk, as of mid-March, over 10M of Ether—the underlying cryptocurrency of the Ethereum network—is now locked into the 2.0 staking contract, representing about $26 billion worth of the token at recent pricing.

Traders and investors bullish on the digital token are anticipating a strong rally once the upgrade is finished. Expectations are for the cryptocurrency to jump 10% to 15%, yielding a return that's higher than the February jump in the US consumer price index YoY, which reached 7.9%.

With many investments now yielding negative returns when adjusted for inflation, bullish crypto investors are hoping for a rush into ETH.

However, despite the positive fundamental outlook, the technical picture seems far less rosy.

ETH/USD Daily

Ethereum's recent rise found resistance at the top of a symmetrical triangle, as the cryptocurrency continued within the same trend—which in this case is lower. Also, if the symmetrical triangle breaks to the downside, its implied target will likely complete a downward sloping H&S top. That's a pattern created when weak demand failed to develop a shoulder that's balanced to its partner.

Meanwhile, the 50 DMA crossed below the 200 DMA triggering a Death Cross, and the 100 DMA followed suit, creating a bearish formation, in which each shorter MA is below the longer ones. This 'inverse' relationship among the moving averages illustrates that the more recent the pricing, the weaker it was, even after being smoothed by the averages.

This pattern ensures that an analyst isn't misled by a rogue move outside of the trend but rather is assured that the underlying forces of the market in question are weak.

Trading Strategies

Conservative traders should wait for the H&S to complete, with a downside breakout through the downward sloping neckline.

Moderate traders would be content with the completion of the symmetrical triangle.

Aggressive traders could short now, at the top of the symmetrical triangle.

Trade Sample

• Entry: $3,000
• Stop-Loss: $3,050
• Risk: $50
• Target: $2,500
• Reward: $500
• Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:10