In our previous update from early July, see here; we asked the question, “Is the bottom for Bitcoin (BTCUSD) in?” By analyzing the charts objectively, using primarily the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP), we concluded that:
“Although our downside target zone has been reached (Y=W, 38.2% retracement), suggesting that the low is most likely in, we now need to wait for the next subtle clues to know our bottom call was correct. In that case, we expect BTC to reach the adjusted ideal target zone of $88,940-91,150.”
Fast forward, and BTC has rallied already 30% since, and it thus appears our bottom call was correct and to the T. Allow us to explain using Figure 1 below.
Figure 1. The daily chart of BTCUSD shows several technical indicators and the EWP counts.
From the July 5 low, we can count five (orange) waves up into the July 29 high, with the orange W-3 subdividing into five smaller (blue) waves. Per the EWP, we know that after five waves up, we must expect at least three waves down, followed by another set of five waves higher.
Thus, the green W-4 has most likely bottomed out. Subsequently, the green W-5 is now most likely underway and is subdividing into five smaller (grey) waves, with the 1st wave (W-i) having topped July 29 at $70027. The grey W-ii should now be underway and, based on standard Fibonacci-based retracements, reach ideally $60+/-2K.
From there, grey W-iii can kick into new all-time highs. Ultimately, we can expect the grey W-v of the green W-5 to reach the adjusted ideal target zone of $88,940-91,150, possibly as high as $93K, depending on where exactly the grey W-ii will bottom.
Only a break below the July 5 low at $53528 will prove our assessment wrong, whereas a break below the orange W-4 low at $63429 is now needed to confirm the grey W-ii.
Thus, our downside target zone was reached (Y=W, 38.2% retracement) and the W-4 low we anticipated for a while is most likely in, as we can count five Elliott Waves up into the July 29 high. We, therefore, now expect a brief retracement back to around $60K, from where we will see a run to $88-93K. As our regular readers know, we remain bullish over the long term and expect BTCUSD to reach well over $100K before the run since the 2022 low is over.