* China defence spending likely to rise despite virus impact
* China nervous about increasing hostility from United
States
* Defence budget expected to be announced on Friday
* Figure widely watched for signs of China's strategic
intentions
By Yew Lun Tian
BEIJING, May 18(Reuters) - China, facing what it sees as
increasing military pressure from the United States, is likely
to shrug off the pall hanging over its economy from the novel
coronavirus and increase its defence budget again this year.
China's military spending, due to be announced at the
opening of the annual meeting of parliament on Friday, is
closely watched as a barometer of how aggressively it will beef
up its military capabilities.
China set a 7.5% rise for the defence budget in 2019,
outpacing what ended up as full-year gross domestic product
(GDP) growth of 6.1% in the world's second-largest economy.
Its economy shrank 6.8% in the first quarter of 2020 from a
year earlier, as the novel coronavirus spread from the central
city of Wuhan where it emerged late last year, and the
government has said economic conditions remain challenging.
Despite the coronavirus outbreak, the armed forces of China
and the United States have remained active in both the disputed
South China Sea and around Chinese-claimed Taiwan.
Xie Yue, a professor of political science at Shanghai's Jiao
Tong University and a security expert, said that while it is
hard to predict if the defence budget would grow at a higher or
lower rate than last year, it would definitely rise.
"From the national security point of view, China needs to
appear strong to the West, especially the United States, which
has been putting more pressure on China on all fronts, including
militarily," he said.
The coronavirus has worsened already poor ties between
Beijing and Washington, with accusations from the Trump
administration of a Chinese cover-up and delayed release of
information about the outbreak.
The Ministry of State Security warned in a recent internal
report that China faced a rising wave of hostility in the wake
of the coronavirus outbreak that could tip relations with the
United States into armed confrontation. "Even if the government cuts everything else, it won't cut
defence," said Tang Renwu, dean of Beijing Normal University's
school of public administration.
The Defence Ministry did not respond to a request for
comment. China routinely says spending is for defensive purposes
only, is a comparatively low percentage of its GDP, and that
critics just want to keep the country down.
'UNBEARABLE COSTS'
China reports only a raw figure for military expenditure,
with no breakdown. It is widely believed by diplomats and
foreign experts to under-report the real number.
Taking the reported figure at face value, China's defence
budget in 2019 - 1.19 trillion yuan ($167.52 billion) - is about
a quarter of the U.S. defence budget last year, which stood at
$686 billion.
China has long argued that it needs much more investment to
close the gap with the United States. China, for example, has
only two aircraft carriers, compared with 12 for the United
States.
Hu Xijin, editor of the ruling Communist Party-backed Global
Times newspaper, wrote in a WeChat post on Monday that he
anticipated the defence budget would rise.
"China needs more military power as a deterrent, to ensure
the U.S. will not act on its impulses because of unbearable
costs," Hu said.
Hu had previously argued that China should expand its stock
of nuclear warheads to 1,000, including "at least 100 DF-41
strategic missiles", an intercontinental missile capable of
striking the continental United States. Experts point out that the benefit of increasing defence
spending when the economy is weak is that it can give the
economy a much-needed shot in the arm, with manufacturing
struggling and domestic consumption slack over worries about job
security.
China's 2019 defence spending represented slightly over 5%
of total government expenditure and about 1.2% of GDP for the
year.
Xie said investing in home-grown military technology
research and development would be money well-spent, as
tightening sanctions meant it was increasingly hard for China to
buy technology on the global market.
"With nationalist sentiment running high, not only will the
increase in military expenditure not be criticised too much, it
may even lead to citizens feeling more pride in the country," he
said.
($1 = 7.1037 Chinese yuan renminbi)