* Coronavirus infections jump across Southeast Asia
* Dampens Europe, U.S. hopes warm weather can suppress virus
* SE Asia spread attributed to more testing, imported cases
By Joe Brock
SINGAPORE, March 16 (Reuters) - A dramatic surge in
coronavirus infections in Southeast Asia in recent days has
increased doubts over a theory that warmer weather could stem
the spread of the virus, health experts say.
Relatively low cases of infections in many Southeast Asian
countries had been cited as possible evidence that hotter
weather was suppressing the virus, giving hope to Europe and the
United States as they head into spring.
But countries from Indonesia to Thailand to Malaysia and the
Philippines have recorded their highest rate of infections in
recent days as testing has ramped up, in a sign seasonal factors
may only play a limited role in coronavirus' spread.
"The temperature theory doesn't really hold up given what's
happening right now in much of Southeast Asia," said Tikki
Pangestu, a professor at Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew School of
Public Policy.
"People in Europe hope warm weather will kill the virus. I
doubt this will be the reality."
The coronavirus, which causes a respiratory disease called
COVID-19, has infected almost 170,000 and over 6,500 have died.
Though a limited amount is known about the new virus, some
of the symptoms show similarities with winter influenza, which
is more widespread in colder temperatures, although this is
partly attributed to people crowding together inside.
Places where the virus has been felt most severely, such as
Wuhan in central China, northern Italy and parts of the United
States, share similar climates and temperatures.
The 2002-2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome
(SARS) eased over the summer months, although it is not clear if
that was related to weather or coincided with tighter public
health interventions.
The World Health Organisation said this month that there was
no evidence that temperature would play a role in the
coronavirus outbreak but it was an avenue worth exploring.
In Southeast Asia, which shares a hot tropical climate, many
countries had reported few cases even months after the initial
outbreak at the end of last year in China, in spite of the
region's close travel, business and investment ties to China.
But health experts said, rather than the hot climate, this
was more down to limited testing, under-detection due to a lack
of resources and more imported cases as the virus moves to
multiple epicentres outside of China.
CASES SPIKE
"At best, warm weather might influence the spread but it
will not see the end of it," said Dale Fisher, chair of the
Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network coordinated by the
World Health Organisation.
"What is important is how effectively countries are
isolating cases, removing people from communities. That's the
biggest factor, not the weather."
The spike of cases in many Southeast Asian countries has
been dramatic in recent days, leading governments to take
drastic action to stem the tide.
In the Philippines, deaths more than doubled to 12 at the
weekend, with confirmed cases rising to 140 – compared to three
10 days ago - prompting authorities to place the entire capital
Manila under "community quarantine". Malaysia reported a further 125 coronavirus cases on Monday
- bringing its total to 553 - the highest in Southeast Asia.
Many were linked to a single event at a mosque.
Thailand, which reported 33 new cases on Monday, its biggest
daily jump, plans to close schools, bars, movie theatres,
cockfighting arenas and other entertainment centres.
Indonesia confirmed 17 more cases on Monday, taking its toll
to 134, amid concerns that there could be large under-reporting
in the world's fourth most populous country.
Indonesia, which only recorded its first cases on March 2,
had carried out only 220 tests a week ago but that has now risen
to nearly a thousand.
Singapore, which has been widely praised for its monitoring
and isolation of infected patients, from Monday implemented
tighter restrictions on visitors from other Southeast Asian
countries after a wave of imported cases from the region.
With so much still not known about the coronavirus, health
experts say countries should not rely on warmer weather to slow
the rapid spread of the virus across the globe.
"It is too simplistic to suggest a tropical climate can stop
coronavirus because there are many other factors, like human to
human contact which can happened very fast," said Sugiyono
Saputra, a microbiology researcher at the Indonesian Institute
of Sciences.
"Environmental factors may not affect the virus at all."
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