Investing.com -- UBS analysts are cautiously optimistic about Apple’s iPhone 16, highlighting mixed demand signals and limited enthusiasm for AI-related features, particularly outside China.
The assessment follows a UBS Evidence Lab survey of over 7,500 smartphone users across the U.S., U.K., China, Germany, and Japan, which provided insights into consumer interest and purchasing intent.
Global iPhone purchase intent is said to have remained largely unchanged year-over-year in key markets.
UBS said that in the U.S., intent held steady at 24%, while in China, it dropped to 17%, down 200 basis points from 2023. Europe offered some bright spots, with purchase intent rising in the U.K. by 200 basis points to 19% and in Germany by 300 basis points to 14%.
The survey also revealed that iPhone retention in China improved to 74% from 68% last year but declined by 300 basis points compared to the prior half-year as competitors like Huawei gained market share. Globally, the average age of an iPhone increased slightly to 21.8 months from 21.3 months a year ago.
The bank added that interest in AI-enabled features, including generative AI (GenAI), remained lukewarm.
Only 30% of respondents are said to have expressed interest in smartphones with GenAI capabilities, while 27% were not interested, and the rest were indifferent.
Cost concerns topped the list of barriers, with 51% of participants citing pricing as a major hurdle, particularly in the U.S., where concerns rose 400 basis points to 55%. Privacy concerns followed at 37%, with a notable decline in China.
Despite muted demand and AI skepticism, UBS raised its global smartphone sell-in estimates for 2024 and 2025 to 1.21 billion and 1.24 billion units, respectively, reflecting modest growth.
UBS maintained a $236 price target and Neutral for Apple shares (NASDAQ:AAPL), valuing it at 32 times the estimated 2026 earnings per share of $7.49.