Stock Trader’s Almanac analysts reflected on the stock market’s historical performance in January, which is one of the most important months in the context of indicators and seasonalities.
Accordingly, January holds a significant place in Wall Street's calendar, traditionally marked by a surge in cash from year-end bonuses and annual allocations, propelling stocks higher.
Notably, January takes the lead for NASDAQ since 1971, though it ranks sixth for the S&P 500 and DJIA since 1950. Despite its historical prominence, rankings slipped from 2000 to 2022 due to various economic challenges.
The month witnessed downturns during 2008-2010, 2014-2016, and 2020-2022, with January 2009 marking the worst on record for DJIA and S&P 500.
While January typically starts positively, with gains in the first half, historical patterns indicate a tendency for weakness in the latter part of the month over the past 21 years.
“In election years, Januarys have been weaker. DJIA and S&P 500 slip to number #8 and DJIA average performance dips negative. NASDAQ slips to #4, but average performance remains respectable at 1.7%,” analysts said.
Stock Trader’s Almanac’s flagship indicator, “The January Barometer,” suggests that the performance of the S&P 500 in January sets the tone for the entire year.
“The full-month January Barometer has a softer record in election years with 12 of the last 18 full years following January’s direction,” they added.
Over the long term, the barometer boasts an impressive 83.6% accuracy rate, making it a reliable indicator. Since 1950, there have been just 12 major errors in its predictions.