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UPDATE 15-U.S. oil plunges to 18-year low as lockdowns trigger market meltdown

Published 03/19/2020, 04:21 AM
© Reuters.  UPDATE 15-U.S. oil plunges to 18-year low as lockdowns trigger market meltdown
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* U.S. crude futures slump more than 20% to lowest since Feb
2002
* More airlines close down services
* Oil demand could fall 2.8% this year -Rystad
* Graphic tracking spread of virus: https://tmsnrt.rs/3aIRuz7

* U.S. crude stocks up 2 mln bbls in 8th weekly build - EIA

(Adds background)
By Jessica Resnick-Ault
NEW YORK, March 18 (Reuters) - Oil prices plunged on
Wednesday, with U.S. crude futures hitting an 18-year low, as
governments worldwide accelerated lockdowns to counter the
coronavirus pandemic.
Oil futures have lost more than half their value in the past
10 days as schools have closed, businesses have shuttered and
governments worldwide have urged residents to limit gatherings.
The decline in the U.S. market in the last 10 days is the
largest ever for the contract since it was introduced in 1983.
"The market is cascading. It's trying to search for a bottom
and it doesn't seem able to find one," said Gene McGillian, vice
president of research at Tradition Energy in Stamford,
Connecticut. "There are fears of an economic collapse because of
what this virus represents, globally."
Global oil demand by the end of March could fall as much as
8 million to 9 million barrels per day (bpd), Goldman Sachs
said.
Investors broadly fled risky assets again on Wednesday. U.S.
stocks slumped, with the S&P 500 dropping 7%, while copper
futures fell 6.9%. MKTS/GLOB
U.S. crude CLc1 fell $6.58, or 24.4%, to settle at $20.37
a barrel. U.S. crude futures have lost 56% over last 10 days.
Brent crude LCOc1 settled down $3.85, or 13.4%, at $24.88
a barrel after dropping as low as $24.52, its weakest since
2003.
The oil market was already reeling after Saudi Arabia
decided this month to dramatically increase supply since it and
Russia could not agree to cut output in anticipation of weaker
demand.
Saudi Arabia has ignored entreaties to act to balance the
market, reiterating plans to maintain production at more than 12
million barrels per day, which would be a record. U.S. crude futures fell even after weekly U.S. data showed
notable declines in gasoline and diesel inventories. Crude
stocks rose by 2 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate
inventories fell by 6.2 million and 2.9 million barrels,
respectively. EIA/S
Goldman forecast a fall in Brent prices to as low as $20 in
the second quarter. Rystad Energy projects a year-on-year
decline in demand of 2.8 million bpd, or 2.8%, this year.
PHYSICAL MARKETS FREEZE
Analysts noted that the sharp fall in U.S. crude prices when
compared with the international benchmark Brent reflected an
increasingly dire outlook in physical markets. Traders believe
the increased activity from Saudi Arabia will limit U.S. exports
in coming weeks, and they anticipate storage filling rapidly as
well as refiners cut runs, boxing in U.S. producers.
"Physical markets are virtually bidless," said Scott
Shelton, energy salesperson from United ICAP. "It tells me
prices are going lower until either OPEC comes back to the
table, or the U.S. E&Ps start announcing cuts to production."
Iraq's oil minister pleaded for an emergency meeting between
members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC) and non-OPEC producers to discuss immediate action to
support the market. The Kremlin said that Russia would like to see the oil price
higher. Saudi Arabia's energy ministry, however,
said it had directed national oil company Aramco to continue to
supply crude oil at a record high 12.3 million bpd over the
coming months.
"With the Saudis and Russians in a fierce battle for market
share, it is difficult to see any quick resolution on this
front," ING said of Iraq's request.
Japan's trade bureau said crude imports into the world's
third-biggest economy in February were down 9% from a year
earlier. The world's richest nations are preparing to unleash
trillions of dollars of spending to reduce the economic fallout
from the coronavirus, as businesses curtail operations in an
effort to keep most workers at home. Honda Motor Co 7267.T said on Wednesday it is halting
production in North America for six days because of the
anticipated decline in auto sales and will reduce production by
about 40,000 vehicles. <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
CHART: Brent oil may fall further to $27.12 per barrel
Interactive graphic tracking global spread of
coronavirus https://tmsnrt.rs/3aIRuz7
GRAPHIC: Popular U.S. crude export grade prices plunge https://tmsnrt.rs/2Ua9ye6
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