The recent market rally, driven by optimism around AI and potential rate cuts, reaffirms UBS's positive outlook on the technology sector, the bank said in a note Thursday.
UBS analysts highlight that despite a mid-July market pullback, the technology sector is buoyed by strong AI capital expenditure and demand.
"Despite the market pullback in mid-July, and without taking any single-name views, Wednesday’s rally underscores our positive outlook on the technology sector amid strong AI capex and demand," wrote the bank.
They comment that S&P 500 companies are on track to achieve a 10-12% profit growth for the second quarter, with 60% of companies beating sales estimates and 75% surpassing earnings estimates, aligning with historical averages.
Furthermore, the bank's analysts observe that guidance for the third quarter from U.S. companies remains consistent with normal seasonal patterns.
The recent Federal Reserve meeting also supports the view that rate cuts are imminent. Chair Powell's comments indicate that the Fed anticipates a soft landing for the U.S. economy, aligning with UBS's base case.
Powell also mentioned the Fed's increasing attentiveness to job market risks from prolonged high rates, though current evidence suggests only a gradual cooling.
UBS maintains a favorable outlook for U.S. equities, advising investors to maintain full allocation to the U.S. market. They emphasize the importance of adhering to long-term investment plans through volatile periods to avoid missing rebounds.
UBS expects the S&P 500 to recover and end the year higher at 5,900 compared to the current 5,522.
In terms of investment strategy, UBS suggests seizing opportunities in AI, particularly in the enabling layer of the AI value chain and vertically integrated mega-caps.
They also recommend seeking quality growth stocks, which have shown consistent earnings growth and reinvestment due to competitive advantages and structural drivers.
Additionally, with anticipated rate cuts, UBS sees significant opportunities in the fixed income market, particularly in high-quality corporate and government bonds, expecting price appreciation as markets anticipate a deeper rate-cutting cycle.