JPMorgan upgraded shares of Kellogg (NYSE:K) to Neutral from Underweight, raising the price target for the stock to $72 from $68 per share.
Analysts told investors in a note that despite Kellogg's beat and raise when it reported earnings on Thursday, its shares trailed the packaged food index by 1.8%.
The packaged food company reported Q1 EPS of $1.10, $0.10 better than the analyst estimate of $1, while revenue for the quarter came in at $4.17 billion versus the consensus estimate of $3.96B. Kellogg also now sees its adjusted EPS declining by 1-3%, up from the prior expected decline of 2-4%.
"In our opinion, one reason is that guidance was raised by less than the 1Q beat. Another may be that K had the misfortune of reporting after HSY, MDLZ, MKC, and KHC — each of which reported very results (i.e. Kellogg's slight guidance raise may not have been good enough in comparison). A third may be that tonnage disappointed versus consensus. Lastly, as mentioned in our initial take this morning, K shares had done relatively well lately," the analysts explained.
JPMorgan expected Kellogg shares to rebound "a bit more" on CEO Steve Cahillane's constructive tone during the earnings call, observation that some dis-synergies are already being experienced, and the statement that investors will be "quite pleased" by the spin-off forecasts the company provides later this year.
The analysts explained that many of the risks they saw when previously downgrading the stock have faded, while "fundamentals have improved and become more consistent, and the valuation relative to the group has shrunk."
"In addition, investors seem to be mentally baking in plenty of dis-synergies already. If sales and earnings continue to perform well, then the next couple of catalysts could be another beat-and-raise, followed by an investor day that, if Mr. Cahillane's prognostication today proves accurate, will allow shareholders to breathe easier regarding the spin's financial implications," they concluded.