JPMorgan strategists suggest that the end-of-2023 rally has resulted in stretched positioning.
“Equity markets are now showing overbought conditions, with sentiment moving into complacent territory,” they said in a note.
Despite lower bond yields, central banks easing, and resilient growth, the risk-reward profile appears less attractive.
“While a year ago risky assets were fully pricing in a recession, and economists unanimously agreed with that, now the picture is quite different, recession probabilities are currently near the lows of the range, and most macro forecasts are hopeful.”
“This might be too optimistic,” the strategists added.
The strategists emphasize the relevance of the long duration trade but anticipate a tactical respite, with potential profit-taking in the technology sector.
The analysis highlights weaker U.S. and European activity momentum compared to the previous year.
Concerns about the Federal Reserve potentially maintaining a "higher for longer" stance, weakening corporate pricing power, and stretched U.S. valuations contribute to the less favorable risk-reward outlook.
JPMorgan maintains a neutral stance on U.S. and emerging markets, an underweight position on the Eurozone, overweight positions in Japan and the UK, and a focus on Switzerland for defensive allocation.
The strategists express a preference for defensive sectors, remaining bullish on energy, real estate, utilities, staples, telecoms, and healthcare. JPMorgan reiterated a neutral position on technology and mining, while being underweight on cyclicals such as autos, retail, capital goods, airlines, chemicals, banks, semis, hotels, and food retail.