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GLOBAL MARKETS-World stocks boast record-breaking month, led by Europe

Published 11/30/2020, 08:17 AM
Updated 11/30/2020, 08:20 AM
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* Asian stock markets : https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
* Nikkei set for best month since 1990
* Dollar and gold out of favour, investors embrace risk
* Oil, industrial commodities lifted by recovery bets
* Sovereign bonds supported by central bank buying

By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, Nov 30 (Reuters) - World shares were set to seal a
record-busting month on Monday as the prospect of a
vaccine-driven global economic recovery next year and yet more
free money from central banks eclipsed concerns about the
pandemic in the near-term.
The rush to risk has also benefited oil and industrial
commodities while undermining the safe-haven dollar and gold.
"November looks set to be an awesome month for equity
investors with Europe leading the charge at a country/regional
level," said NAB analyst Rodrigo Catril.
Many European bourses are boasting their best month ever
with France up 21% and Italy almost 26%. The MSCI measure of
world stocks .MIWD00000PUS is up 13% for November so far,
while the S&P 500 .SPX has climbed 11% to all-time peaks.
Early Monday, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares
outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS rose 0.1%, to be up more than 11%
for the month in its best performance since late 2011.
Japan's Nikkei .N225 firmed 0.7%, bringing its gains for
the month to 16.7% for the largest rise since 1990.
E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 ESc1 edged up another 0.1%
in early trade, and NASDAQ futures NQc1 0.4%.
"Markets are overbought and at risk of a short term pause,"
said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Capital.
"However, we are now in a seasonally strong time of year and
investors are yet to fully discount the potential for a very
strong recovery next year in growth and profits as stimulus
combines with vaccines."
Cyclical recovery shares including resources, industrials
and financials were likely to be relative outperformers, he
added.
The surge in stocks has put some competitive pressure on
safe-haven bonds but much of that has been cushioned by
expectations of more asset buying by central banks.
Sweden's Riksbank surprised last week by expanding its bond
purchase program and the European Central Bank is likely to
follow in December.

DOLLAR IN DECLINE
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies to Congress on
Tuesday amid speculation of further policy action at its next
meeting in mid-December.
As a result U.S. 10-year yields are ending the month almost
exactly where they started at 0.84% US10YT=RR , a solid
performance given the exuberance in equities.
The U.S. dollar has not been as lucky.
"The idea that a potential Treasury Secretary (Janet) Yellen
and Fed chair Powell could work more closely to shape and
coordinate super easy monetary policy and massive fiscal
stimulus that could drive a rapid post pandemic recovery saw the
dollar under pressure," said Robert Rennie, head of financial
market strategy at Westpac.
Against a basket of currencies, the dollar index was pinned
at 91.771 =USD having shed 2.4% for the month to suffer its
lowest close in two years on Friday.
The euro has caught a tailwind from the relative
outperformance of European stocks and climbed 2.7% for the month
so far to reach $1.1964 EUR= . A break of the September peak at
$1.2011 would open the way to a 2018 top at $1.2555.
The dollar has even declined against the Japanese yen, a
safe-haven of its own, losing 0.5% in November to reach 104.03
yen JPY= , though it remains well above key support at 103.16.
Sterling stood at $1.3325 GBP= , having climbed steadily
this month to its highest since September, as investors wagered
a Brexit deal would be brokered even as the deadline for talks
loomed ever larger.
One major casualty of the rush to risk has been gold, which
was near a five-month trough at $1,789 an ounce XAU= having
shed 4.7% so far in November.
Oil, in contrast, has benefited from the prospect of a
demand revival should the vaccines allow travel and transport to
resume next year. O/R
Some profit-taking set in early Monday and pulled Brent
crude LCOc1 futures back 53 cents to $47.65, while U.S. crude
CLc1 eased 30 cents to $45,23 a barrel.

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Asia stock markets https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
Asia-Pacific valuations https://tmsnrt.rs/2Dr2BQA
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(Editing by Lincoln Feast.)

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