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FOREX-Currency markets stay 'risk-on' as dollar hits lowest since 2018

Published 12/30/2020, 08:33 PM
Updated 12/30/2020, 08:40 PM
© Reuters.
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DE10YT=RR
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US10YTIP=RR
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* Dollar falls to lowest since April 2018
* Pound boosted by UK Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine approval
* Aussie, Kiwi gain versus dollar
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

(Updates throughout, adds virus latest and inflation
expectations)
By Elizabeth Howcroft
LONDON, Dec 30 (Reuters) - The dollar slid to its lowest in
more than two years on Wednesday and riskier currencies gained,
as investors looked past rising COVID-19 infections and the
latest delay in U.S. fiscal stimulus talks to bet on an economic
recovery in 2021.
Lockdown measures in England will be extended, and U.S.
President-elect Joe Biden warned that it could take years for
most Americans to be vaccinated against COVID-19 at current
rates. U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on Tuesday
blocked a vote on increasing COVID-19 relief payments to $2,000,
adding another delay to fractious negotiations over fiscal
stimulus. But market sentiment was upbeat as investors remained
optimistic that a stimulus deal will be eventually reached and
that COVID-19 vaccines will facilitate a global economic
recovery, lessening demand for the safe-haven dollar.
The latest setback "doesn't really matter too much for
investors, as they have been over the moon on the back of news
that there is still plenty of fiscal support for the U.S.
economy," Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Avatrade, said in
a note.
Analysts expect the dollar to weaken further in 2021 as U.S.
President-elect Biden is expected to push for even more measures
to support the U.S. economy.
The "risk-on" moves in currency markets saw major currencies
reach record levels in the Asian session on Wednesday, ease off
as European markets opened, then hit new records as the European
session continued.
At 1159 GMT, the dollar was down around 0.3% versus a basket
of currencies at 89.737, having dropped as low as 89.681 shortly
before 1100 GMT =USD . The euro was up at $1.22715 EUR=EBS .
The Australian dollar - seen as a liquid proxy for global
risk appetite - was up 0.8% on the day at 0.7664 at 1202 GMT
AUD=D3 . The New Zealand dollar also hit two-year highs
NZD=D3 .
The dollar lost out to the Japanese yen, with dollar-yen
down 0.4% at 103.13 JPY=EBS .
In Europe, sentiment was buoyed by Britain becoming the
first country in the world to approve the COVID-19 vaccine
developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University.
The British pound was up against the dollar at $1.3607, but
little changed against the euro, as traders returning from the
Christmas break digested the Brexit deal struck on Dec. 24.
Although the agreement avoids a chaotic no-deal exit, it
does not cover services, which make up 80% of the British
economy. Commonwealth Bank of Australia wrote in a note to clients
that the lack of an equivalence framework for financial services
in the deal and growing support for Scottish independence are
new headwinds for the pound.
Euro zone government bond yields edged up by around one to
two basis points, with Germany's benchmark 10-year yield at
-0.562% at 1206 GMT DE10YT=RR .
There were some signs of increasing inflation expectations.
Breakeven rates on 10-year TIPS, which measure expected annual
inflation for the next decade, slipped to 1.962% US10YTIP=RR .
"The rapid growth in U.S. money supply and rising commodity
prices are stirring up fears about a return of inflation," wrote
Schroders analysts in a note.
"These concerns are reflected in inflation-linked
securities, with the 10-year breakeven inflation rate in the
U.S. having risen from 0.5% in March to just under 2% today,"
they said.
The euro zone's five-year, five-year inflation forward
reached its highest since February earlier in December
EUIL5YF5Y=R .
Elsewhere, Bitcoin reached a record high of $28,599.99,
taking the yearly gain for the world's most popular
cryptocurrency past 295% BTC=BTSP .

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Dollar index in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/38KGAZx
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