By Senad Karaahmetovic
UBS analysts believe that supply disruptions that Apple (AAPL) experienced in the last quarter of 2022 “materially” impacted November and December iPhone units.
According to UBS’ calculations, iPhone sell-through fell about 3% in October, 15% in November and nearly 18% in December. Overall, the CYQ422 drop is calculated at approximately 12%, which compares to a ~6% decline in the first 9 months of CY22.
“We estimate iPhone sell-through for the full year was roughly 6% below our forecast of sell-in as the spread notably widened in the December quarter. We estimate Dec qtr global sell-through of roughly 67 million units or ~15% below our 79 million sell-in est. and market expectations of 74M-75M,” the analysts said in a client note.
“Roughly one-third of iPhone sell-through in a given year is in the US, while roughly 20% is in China, with another 20% in Europe. During the fourth quarter of CY22, iPhone sell-through in the US was down just 1% compared to ~12% in China and 30% in Europe. Given the relative strength in the US and softer results in Europe, the US accounted for almost 35% of sell-through while Europe fell below 18%.”
On a more positive note, the analyst believes Apple still won some sell-through share as the global smartphone market dipped 14-15%.
UBS rates Apple stock with a Buy rating and a $180 per share price target.
Apple shares (NASDAQ:AAPL) fell 2% yesterday to close at $143.00. The stock is down a further 0.9% in pre-open Tuesday.