(Bloomberg) -- The collapse of U.K. tour operator Thomas Cook Group Plc will be to the detriment of some stocks, but the benefit of many others.
Shares of rival TUI AG surged as much as 11% in London, while online peer On The Beach Group Plc gained as much as 6.3%, boosted by the prospect of reduced industry capacity. Budget airlines also rose, though one decliner was Webjet, the Australian travel group which has a hotel sourcing deal with Thomas Cook.
“The effects will be felt across the sector, not all bad,” Neil Wilson, chief market analyst at Markets.com, said in emailed commentary. “Airlines are firmer today as they should feel the benefit from the abrupt loss of short-haul capacity.”
Bernstein analyst Richard Clarke sees the potential for several other tour operators collapsing, though predicts TUI will be among those that benefit from the shake-out.
Here’s a round-up of stocks affected by Thomas Cook’s collapse:
Tour operators
- TUI is the most significant beneficiary among tour operators, according to Citi analyst James Ainley
- TUI will be the only tour firm left with “a significant captive retail store base in the U.K. and the only major fully integrated European tour operator,” Ainley writes in a note
- TUI has an estimated market share of about 19% in the U.K. compared with about 8% for Thomas Cook
- On The Beach is in a strong position to gain “significant market share,” according to Liberum analyst Anna Barnfather
- Liberum sees potential for On The Beach to increase profit by GBP10m-GBP15m over the medium term
- On The Beach said it’s assisting Thomas Cook customers who are currently in resort and expects a one-off cost that will be booked in the current financial year
- Australian travel group Webjet said Thomas Cook’s liquidation will impact its FY20 results, with Ebitda being reduced by up to about A$7m
- Webjet previously indicated it expected to earn A$150m to A$200m in total transactional value from Thomas Cook in FY20
- Shares closed 3.5% lower in Sydney
- The removal of Thomas Cook’s capacity should be positive for airlines’ pricing over the upcoming winter season, according to Liberum analyst Gerald Khoo
- EasyJet shares gain as much as 6.6% in London, while Ryanair rises as much as 3.8% in Dublin
- The budget airlines were the biggest beneficiaries when U.K. leisure carrier Monarch collapsed two years ago, Khoo says
- Thomas Cook’s exit suggests a “more rational” winter ahead, while key is how Thomas Cook’s slots and capacity will be recycled back into market, RBC analysts led by Damian Brewer write in a note
- Lufthansa upgraded to buy from sell at Bankhaus Metzler
- Thomas Cook collapse could trigger a reaction similar to that after Air Berlin’s bankruptcy in 2017, when ticket prices rose significantly in some cases and Lufthansa shares surged, analyst Guido Hoymann writes in a note
- Lufthansa shares advance as much as 1.8% in Frankfurt
- Leeds, England-based Dart Group generated 94% of its FY19 revenue from its leisure airline, according to data compiled by Bloomberg
- Shares gain as much as 10% in London
- Chinese conglomerate Fosun International is Thomas Cook’s biggest shareholder and had led a bailout plan
- Shares of co.’s Fosun Tourism unit fell 4.7% in Hong Kong
- Fosun International dropped 1.5%
- Fosun Tourism said it’s disappointed that the U.K. company hadn’t been able to find a viable solution
- “For certain Fosun wasn’t prepared to pay a penny more,” said Wilson of Markets.com
- The Turkish government is preparing a loan-support package for Turkish businesses which might be harmed from Thomas Cook’s collapse, according to a Twitter post by Turkey’s Culture & Tourism Ministry
- Thomas Cook U.K. currently has 21,033 guests accommodated in Turkey