* Investors bullish on Taiwan dollar for 1st time since
April 2018
* Short bets on Chinese yuan fall for second time in a month
* Bearish bets on Indian rupee reduced for 2nd time this
month
By Nikhil Nainan and Shriya Ramakrishnan
Sept 26 (Reuters) - Investors scaled back short positions on
currencies of trade-reliant Asian economies over the past two
weeks, a Reuters poll showed, as optimism grew that the United
States and China would clinch a trade deal at some level.
They also turned bullish on the Taiwan dollar TWD=TP for
the first time since April last year, a poll of 14 respondents
showed.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday a deal to end
the nearly 15-month trade war could happen sooner than people
think. However, his comments came after the close of the poll.
Trump's comments come at a time when optimism has been
growing that a deal may be reached due to ongoing trade talks
and political considerations ahead of elections next year in the
United States.
Short bets on the Chinese yuan CNY=CFXS , the South Korean
won KRW=KFTC and the Singapore dollar SGD= declined for the
second time in a month, but the unpredictable nature of the last
15 months has kept market participants slightly apprehensive.
"Knowing the history of the talks between the two giants,
the market is also prudent not to get carried away with the odds
of a trade deal," said Mahesh Sethuraman, deputy head of global
sales trading at Saxo Capital Markets.
Just this week Trump levelled sharp criticism of China's
trade practices and said he would not accept a "bad" trade deal.
Disruptions caused by the trade war have seen a growing need
for supply chain diversification, driving more business towards
Taiwan, whose hi-tech factories are suppliers for global tech
giants such as Apple AAPL.O and Qualcomm QCOM.O .
Last week, the island raised its 2019 growth forecast to
2.4% from 2.06%.
Investors cut their bearish bets on the Indian rupee
INR=IN for a second time this month, as the government
unveiled a series of measures to reinvigorate the economy.
Last week, India lowered its corporate taxes in a surprise
move to woo manufacturers and boost investment in Asia's
third-largest economy, where unemployment has surged as growth
sinks to a six-year low. Investors raised their long bets on the Thai baht THB=TH ,
the only other emerging Asian currency where they were bullish,
even as the country struggles with shrinking exports and
below-target inflation.
The central bank has expressed concern about the strength of
the baht, which has gained nearly 6.5% against the U.S. dollar -
making it Asia's best performing currency so far this year.
Short positions on the Philippine pesos PHP= were
marginally reduced. Later in the day, the central bank is
expected to cut interest rates for a third time this year.
The Asian currency positioning poll is focused on what
analysts and fund managers believe are the current market
positions in nine Asian emerging market currencies: the Chinese
yuan, South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah,
Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso, Malaysian ringgit
and the Thai baht.
The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a
scale of minus 3 to plus 3. A score of plus 3 indicates the
market is significantly long U.S. dollars.
The figures include positions held through non-deliverable
forwards (NDFs).
The survey findings ASIAPOSN are provided below (positions
in U.S. dollar versus each currency):
DDMM CNY KRW {{2034|SGD IDIDR TWD INR MYR PHP THB
26/9 0.84 0.91 0.51 0.01 -0.05 0.34 0.56 0.34 -0.77
12/9 0.95 1.13 0.63 -0.12 0.28 0.78 0.37 0.39 -0.52
29/8 1.51 1.68 1.17 0.45 0.78 0.85 0.81 0.60 -0.73
15/8 1.09 1.41 0.99 0.33 0.47 0.17 0.59 0.16 -0.68
01/8 0.37 1.04 0.65 -0.33 0.46 -0.49 -0.07 -0.45 -0.85
18/7 0.20 0.88 0.10 -0.46 0.36 -0.35 0.02 -0.38 -1.00
4/7 0.55 1.02 0.15 0.03 0.54 -0.15 0.67 -0.19 -1.19
20/6 1.21 1.33 0.78 0.41 1.21 0.13 1.10 0.45 -0.53
6/6 1.23 1.53 0.93 0.64 1.30 -0.01 1.18 0.40 -0.11
23/5 1.28 1.69 1.01 0.84 1.14 -0.32 1.17 0.60 0.41
<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Poll: Asia's emerging market currencies http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/ASIA-FX/0100214E2S7/index.html
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>