* Short bets on won highest since mid-June
* Bearish positions on Singapore dollar, Taiwan dollar rise
* Bets on ringgit turn bullish first time since mid-April
*
By Aby Jose Koilparambil
Aug 1 (Reuters) - Investors turned more bearish on some
Asian currencies and trimmed long bets on others over the past
two weeks, a Reuters poll showed, as caution prevailed over
prospective further dovish approach by key global central banks
and their Asian counterparts.
Bearish bets on the Chinese yuan CNY=CFXS , the South
Korean won KRW=KFTC , the Singapore dollar SGD=D3 and the
Taiwan dollar TWD=TP rose, while long positions narrowed for
the Indonesian rupiah IDR=ID and the Thai baht THB=TH .
The fortnightly poll of 13 participants was closed before
the U.S. Federal Reserve rate-cut decision on Wednesday. The 25
basis points reduction had been largely priced in by the
markets.
The rate-cut, its first in more than a decade, was however
followed by Chairman Jerome Powell's statement that the move
might not be the start of a lengthy campaign to shore up the
economy against risks. Last month, central banks of Korea and Indonesia had cut
interest rates, while the European Central Bank and the Bank of
Japan kept the door open for a reduction option while holding
rates steady in their respective policy meetings.
Policy makers across the globe are firefighting to tackle
global growth worries amid the festering Sino-U.S. trade spat,
while most major Asian economies are further bruised by cooling
demand from key regional trade partner China.
Most Asian currencies are also under pressure with factory
activity in the continent on shaky ground as global demand
remained subdued and China's stimulus measures were yet to show
their full pulling power.
Fuelling further fears of a slowdown, profits earned by
China's industrial firms contracted in June after a brief gain
the previous month, while factory activity shrank for the third
straight month in July. Short positions on the won, the worst-performing Asian
currency so far this year with a 6% decline, were at their
highest since mid-June.
South Korea's exports tumbled for an eighth straight month
in July, with persistently weak global demand and an escalating
dispute with Japan painting an increasingly gloomy picture for
Asia's fourth-largest economy.
Bearish positions rose for the Taiwan dollar too and like
South Korea, Taiwan's economy also relies heavily on its
technology-oriented exports, and has seen economic headwinds due
to a slowdown in demand for the like.
Investors, however, turned bullish on the Malaysian ringgit
MYR=MY for the first time since mid-April, while long
positions on the Indian rupee INR=IN rose for a second
consecutive poll.
The Reuters survey is focused on what analysts believe are
the current market positions in nine Asian emerging market
currencies: the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore
dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee,
Philippine peso PHP=PDSP , Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht.
The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a
scale of minus 3 to plus 3.
A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long
on U.S. dollars. The figures included positions held through
non-deliverable forwards (NDFs).
The survey findings ASIAPOSN are provided below (positions
in U.S. dollar versus each currency):
DDMM CNY KRW {{2034|SGD IDIDR TWD INR MYR PHP THB
01/8 0.37 1.04 0.65 -0.33 0.46 -0.49 -0.07 -0.45 -0.85
18/7 0.20 0.88 0.10 -0.46 0.36 -0.35 0.02 -0.38 -1.00
4/7 0.55 1.02 0.15 0.03 0.54 -0.15 0.67 -0.19 -1.19
20/6 1.21 1.33 0.78 0.41 1.21 0.13 1.10 0.45 -0.53
6/6 1.23 1.53 0.93 0.64 1.30 -0.01 1.18 0.40 -0.11
23/5 1.28 1.69 1.01 0.84 1.14 -0.32 1.17 0.60 0.41
09/5 0.26 1.29 0.29 0.07 0.44 -0.28 0.67 -0.03 0.29
25/4 -0.35 0.65 -0.08 -0.29 0.25 -0.48 0.33 -0.13 0.02
11/4 -0.30 0.51 -0.28 -0.07 0.26 -0.67 -0.10 -0.03 -0.15
28/3 -0.59 0.3 -0.32 0.21 0.16 -0.58 -0.32 0.22 -0.57