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FOREX-Hopes for virus treatment, U.S. reopening snuff out dollar rally

Published 04/17/2020, 01:46 PM
Updated 04/17/2020, 01:50 PM
© Reuters.
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* Trump unveils re-opening template; positive report on
virus drug
* Markets shrug off China GDP slump
* Aussie, kiwi lead gains
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

By Tom Westbrook
SINGAPORE, April 17 (Reuters) - The dollar dipped on Friday
as a news report on signs of success in a COVID-19 treatment
drug trial as well as early plans to re-open the U.S. economy
drove fresh optimism and risk appetite.
Even the first drop in Chinese economic growth since
quarterly records began nearly three decades ago did not dent
the mood as investors sought silver linings in indications of a
rebound in industrial production.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars led gains, with both
rising about 1% before paring a little, while the pound and euro
also rose to recoup some of the past two days' losses.
The moves toppled the dollar, which has closely tracked risk
sentiment through the coronavirus crisis, from a week high. The
greenback is headed for its steadiest week in almost two months.
"It's this divided feeling between wanting to worry about
the economic freeze and the hope that things might be
re-starting quite soon," said Moh Siong Sim, currency analyst at
the Bank of Singapore.
"We're stuck in that limbo zone, but it does seem that the
infection rate may have hit a peak at a global level ... and if
we find a cure, then there's a cure for the economy as well."
Optimism on Friday was sparked by hopes for a successful
treatment of COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the
coronavirus, and was carried through the Asian day in spite of
dismal economic news.
Medical news website STAT, citing a recorded discussion
between doctors involved in a clinical trial, said most of 125
patients given Gilead's GILD.O remdesivir drug at a hospital
in Chicago had recovered and been discharged. Gilead said anecdotal reports do not provide the data needed
to determine the safety or efficacy of the experimental drug as
a treatment for COVID-19 and that it expects more data will be
available at the end of the month.
"The market is looking for good news - grasping and hoping
and praying," said Imre Speizer, FX analyst at Westpac. "People
just want to get on the positive bandwagon."
The dollar last sat at $1.0874 per euro EUR= and $1.2500
per pound GDP= and firmed to 107.70 yen JPY= .
The Aussie AUD=D3 last bought $0.6367 and the kiwi
NZD=D3 at $0.6019. Against a basket of currencies =USD the
U.S. dollar was 0.1% softer but set for a weekly gain of 0.3%,
its smallest weekly move since February.

'GRADUALLY RECOVERING'
Adding to the good news was a surprise jump in Singapore
non-oil exports, driven by gold and pharmaceuticals, and
tentative progress toward a re-opening of the world's biggest
economy - the United States. U.S. President Donald Trump has announced guidelines for a
return to work, a three-stage process dependent on robust virus
testing and subject to states' discretion. Nevertheless, the crisis has already turned some 22 million
Americans out of work and hammered global growth.
China's economy shrank 6.8% in the first quarter, the first
reversal since at least 1992, as the coronavirus outbreak
paralysed production and spending. Investors were encouraged because that was not too much
worse than they had feared, and because of a less-than-expected
1.1% drop in industrial output, though big uncertainties remain.
"It shows the economy is gradually recovering from the very
worst," said Nathan Chow, senior economist at DBS in Hong Kong.
"But I think in the second quarter we will see at most a
stabilisation, not a rebound, because cases are still rising for
most of China's trading partners, which will dampen orders going
forward. Based on this first-quarter number, I would say the
whole year GDP growth would be something around 2%."

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