* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
By Saikat Chatterjee
LONDON, Jan 11 (Reuters) - The dollar gained on Monday as
widening U.S. Treasury yields and expectations of more fiscal
stimulus lifted it for a third consecutive day, with the euro
falling to a three-week low.
President-elect Joe Biden, who takes office on Jan. 20 with
Democrats able to control both houses of Congress, has promised
"trillions" in extra pandemic-relief spending. Ordinarily, the extra spending plans would force investors
to worry about rising inflation and its detrimental effect on
the U.S. dollar in a weak economy, but the currency has been
supported in recent weeks thanks to rising U.S. yields.
At 103 basis points, the spread between the three-month and
10-year U.S. debt is at its steepest since late March and is
approaching the 2020 highs of 123 bps. The 10-year yield of
1.10% is the highest since March 19, while the 10-year TIPS
inflation break-even inflation rate of 2.07% is the highest
since November 2018.
As a result, the euro EUR=EBS fell 0.5% to $1.2155, its
lowest since Dec. 21, down nearly 2% from a high of $1.2349 last
week.
"It is hardly surprising that the recent acceleration in
real U.S. yields has reminded the FX markets to end its focus on
inflation and to assume a more comprehensive approach in its
dollar valuation," Commerzbank strategists said.
"That means: things are not looking so bad for the dollar at
present that EUR-USD levels of 1.2350 and above would currently
be justified."
The nominal yield on benchmark 10-year U.S. debt
US10YT=RR is up more than 20 basis points to 1.1187% this
year, helping the dollar to rise to a one-month high of 104.20
against the Japanese yen JPY= .
Morgan Stanley recommended a neutral view on the dollar and
closed a dollar-bearish trade versus the euro and the Canadian
dollar, according to a note published last week.
The dollar index =USD has lost roughly 12% since a
three-year peak in March. It is now more than 1.3% above the
almost- three-year low it hit last week. It rose 0.1% to 90.418
on Monday.
"Everyone's asking whether this changes the weaker dollar
narrative - that's why I think we're getting a bit of a
continuation of what we're seeing on Thursday and Friday," said
National Australia Bank's head of FX strategy, Ray Attrill.
That has also prompted some investors to trim their bearish
bets versus the dollar with net short bets on the dollar versus
the euro declining to $21 billion, compared with $24 billion two
weeks earlier, according to latest positioning data.
Elsewhere, the hitherto soaring Australian dollar AUD=D3
fell nearly 1% to $0.7693, unmoved by another solid month of
local retail sales. The dollar also rose 0.2% to 6.4864 yuan
CNY= after weak factory gate prices in China. CNY/
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US real yields and euro https://tmsnrt.rs/2LbvJA7
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