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FOREX-Euro and U.S. dollar waffle as markets weigh ECB policy talk

Published 04/22/2021, 10:52 PM
Updated 04/22/2021, 11:00 PM
© Reuters.
USD/SEK
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DX
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(Revises throughout with reaction to ECB; new byline, changes
dateline, previous LONDON)
* Euro gains then falls around central bank press conference
* Dollar index remains near multi-week lows
* Graphic: World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

By David Henry and Ritvik Carvalho
NEW YORK/LONDON, April 22 (Reuters) - Major currencies
gyrated between modest gains and losses on Thursday as markets
tried to digest European Central Bank comments on interest rate
policy amid new evidence in the United States of a stronger
economic recovery.
The euro edged higher, toyed with a bigger gain and then
fell back after the European Central kept its interest rate
policy intact and left questions about how it will withdraw
stimulus when the economy recovers. The euro was up on the day about 0.1% against the U.S.
dollar when the central bank posted its statement, and briefly
doubled as ECB chief Christine Lagarde spoke afterward citing
"signs of improvement" under clouds of economic uncertainty,
before slipping back.
At mid-morning in New York the euro EUR=EBS was off 0.24%
to $1.2007 and the dollar index =USD against major currencies
was up 0.28% to 91.355.
Axel Merk, chief investment officer at Merk Investments in
Palo Alto, California, said markets vacillated over what Lagarde
was revealing about the timing of interest rate hikes when she
said that the ECB would like to pace its moves with those of the
U.S. central bank but that two economies have different
inflation trajectories.
In the end, Merk said, "there was no big substance there."
The back-and-forth of the currencies on Thursday was another
example of how markets have been preoccupied with sorting out
how quickly different economies will rebound from the pandemic
and how their interest rates will fluctuate.
On Wednesday the Canadian dollar rose sharply after the Bank
of Canada signalled rate hikes next year and said it was pulling
back on asset purchases. The announcement marked the first Group
of Seven central bank to move towards withdrawing stimulus.
Now markets are looking toward next week's meeting of the
U.S. Federal Reserve and possible comments about how it views
future changes in its easy monetary policy.
After the ECB comments, euro zone bond yields edged higher
while yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries were little changed at
1.56% despite a report from the government that U.S. weekly
jobless claims declined further, strengthening expectations for
blockbuster U.S. job growth in April. Sentiment toward the dollar has weakened much of this month
after a March spike in Treasury yields reversed course. But
some analysts say the outlook over the longer term remains
positive due to a strong U.S. economy and more coronavirus
vaccinations.
"Looking ahead, we see a strategically high risk that U.S.
real rates will make a comeback," said Lars Sparresø Merklin,
senior analyst at Danske Bank.
Merk said, "Ultimately what matters is the progress with the
pandemic" and what that means for a global recovery, inflation
and interest rates.
In cryptocurrency markets, ethernet ETC=BTSP jumped as
much as 10%, while bitcoin BTC=BTSP rose 3% to $55,400 at 1235
GMT.

========================================================
Currency bid prices at 10:24 AM (1424 GMT)
Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid
Previous Change
Session
Dollar index =USD 91.3550 91.1100 +0.28% 1.527% +91.3900 +90.9980
Euro/Dollar EUR=EBS $1.2007 $1.2036 -0.24% +0.00% +$1.2070 +$1.2003
Dollar/Yen JPY=EBS 108.0600 108.0400 +0.02% +0.00% +108.1900 +107.8150
Euro/Yen EURJPY= 129.73 130.03 -0.23% +0.00% +130.4600 +129.7100
Dollar/Swiss CHF=EBS 0.9186 0.9172 +0.17% +0.00% +0.9188 +0.9145
Sterling/Dollar GBP=D3 $1.3835 $1.3927 -0.65% +0.00% +$1.3948 +$1.3825
Dollar/Canadian CAD=D3 1.2527 1.2495 +0.28% +0.00% +1.2534 +1.2473
Aussie/Dollar AUD=D3 $0.7712 $0.7753 -0.54% +0.00% +$0.7764 +$0.7710
Euro/Swiss EURCHF= 1.1027 1.1033 -0.05% +0.00% +1.1047 +1.1015
Euro/Sterling EURGBP= 0.8676 0.8641 +0.41% +0.00% +0.8702 +0.8635
NZ NZD=D3 $0.7164 $0.7209 -0.66% +0.00% +$0.7213 +$0.7162
Dollar/Dollar
Dollar/Norway NOK=D3 8.3700 8.3410 +0.42% +0.00% +8.3770 +8.3130
Euro/Norway EURNOK= 10.0514 10.0368 +0.15% +0.00% +10.0578 +10.0127
Dollar/Sweden SEK= 8.4413 8.4015 +0.17% +0.00% +8.4445 +8.3861
Euro/Sweden EURSEK= 10.1355 10.1180 +0.17% +0.00% +10.1365 +10.1040

<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
ECB PEPP https://tmsnrt.rs/2QPN8QZ
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

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