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FOREX-Dollar snaps 3-day losing streak as Fed minutes eyed

Published 11/19/2019, 07:40 PM
Updated 11/19/2019, 07:48 PM
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar snaps 3-day losing streak as Fed minutes eyed
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* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

LONDON, Nov 19 (Reuters) - The dollar snapped a three-day
losing streak against rivals on Tuesday thanks to gains in the
Swiss franc and the Japanese yen but remained trapped within
well-worn ranges before the release of minutes from the latest
U.S. central bank meeting.
At its end-October policy meeting, the Fed cut interest
rates for the third time this year, and hedge funds have ramped
up bearish bets versus the dollar in the last three weeks in
anticipation of more greenback weakness.
Waning hopes of a preliminary trade deal between the United
States and China have also weighed on the dollar, knocking it
from a one-month high tested last week.
"Trade headlines are buffeting markets though there is a
general feeling the worst is behind us on the trade war front
but there needs to be a firm catalyst to move markets out of
their ranges," said Neil Mellor, a senior FX strategist at BNY
Mellon in London.
Expectations had grown that Washington and Beijing would
sign a so-called "phase one" deal this month to scale back their
16-month-long trade war but those hopes received a setback on
Monday after CNBC reported that China is pessimistic about
agreeing to a deal. The dollar drifted 0.1% higher .DXY to 97.87 against its
rivals after three consecutive days of losses.
Its gains were most pronounced against the perceived
safe-haven currencies of the franc CHF= and the yen JPY= ,
rising 0.2% against both.

LOW VOLATILITY
Despite the gains, the dollar and the broader currency
complex remained mired within recent trading ranges.
Deutsche Bank estimates that currency market volatility for
the major G10 currency pairs is at its lowest levels in 45
years.
Against the dollar, the major G10 currencies are on track
for an average annual range of nearly 8.5%, compared to a post
Bretton Woods range of 15.2% and a peak of 30.7% in 2008.
A period of low inflation, limited changes to central bank
policies and a concerted push by global policymakers to stem any
negative pressures in global markets have all contributed to
this ultra-low period of financial market volatility.
Elsewhere, Australia's central bank agreed "a case could be
made" for another cut to its 0.75% cash rate at its November
meeting given unwelcome weakness in wages growth and inflation,
minutes published on Tuesday showed.
The Australian dollar AUD=D3 fell 0.16% to $0.6799 and
declined 0.26% to 73.82 yen AUDJPY= .
Sterling held firm around $1.2950 with the pound buoyed by
polls pointing to a victory by the ruling Conservatives in
upcoming elections.
In the onshore market, the yuan CNY=CFXS fell to a
two-week low of 7.0295 per dollar.

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G7 implied volatility https://tmsnrt.rs/2qfLknL
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