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FOREX-Dollar retreats from 2-yr high overnight, set for weekly loss

Published 05/24/2019, 12:06 PM
Updated 05/24/2019, 12:10 PM
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar retreats from 2-yr high overnight, set for weekly loss
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* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Daniel Leussink
TOKYO, May 24 (Reuters) - The dollar was on track on Friday
to post a small weekly loss after coming off two-year highs on
lower U.S. yields as investors feared the Sino-U.S. trade
dispute will hurt the U.S. economy more than previously thought.
Another factor keeping the greenback down was rising
expectations the Federal Reserve will cut U.S. interest rates
later this year to boost the world's biggest economy.
Against a basket of key rival currencies .DXY , the dollar
was largely unchanged at 97.878, having fallen from a two-year
high of 98.371 overnight. That put the dollar on track for a
0.12% loss this week.
Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho
Securities, said that due to U.S.-China trade tensions, "markets
are pricing in the potential negative impact" on the U.S.
economy and the U.S. equities.
President Donald Trump on Thursday said U.S. complaints
against Huawei Technologies Co Ltd HWL.UL might be resolved
within the framework of a U.S.-China trade deal, while at the
same time he called the Chinese telecommunications giant "very
dangerous." The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield US10YT=RR was last up
slightly at 2.327%.
On Thursday, it fell to its lowest since October 2017 after
an early read on U.S. manufacturing activity for May showed the
weakest pace of growth in almost a decade, suggesting a sharp
slowdown in economic growth was under way. There was only a 38.4% expectation on Thursday that U.S.
interest rates will be at current levels in October, compared to
58.3% a month ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.
"Markets are pricing in a rate cut as damage from the trade
tension is thought to be larger than imagined, though the Fed
hasn't talked about it at all," said Yukio Ishizuki, senior
currency strategist at Daiwa Securities.
"The Trump administration is expected to put a fair amount
of pressure on the Fed from now on. Investors are thinking about
a rate-cut scenario without the Fed giving in to that."
Against the yen, the dollar edged down to 109.59 yen JPY= ,
extending losses overnight, when it gave up two-thirds of a
percent, its steepest drop in a single session in two months.
"Global risk aversion stemming from the intensifying
U.S.-China trade tension is causing the stronger yen," said
Mizuho's Yamamoto.
The greenback is still 0.5% above a three-month trough of
109.02 yen touched on May 13.
The Australian dollar was off 0.2% at $0.6884 AUD=D4 after
the chief economist of Westpac Banking Corp said he expects
three central bank rate cuts this year, one more than the market
consensus for two easings. The Aussie still remained on track to finish the week with a
small gain, its first advance in six weeks.
The euro was flat at $1.1181 EUR= , having bounced from a
two-year low of $1.11055 during the previous session.
The single currency came under pressure after a private
survey showed activity in Germany's services and manufacturing
sectors fell in May, aggravating fears about the effect of
unresolved trade disputes on Europe's largest
economy. Compounding these worries, European parliamentary elections
began on Thursday with eurosceptic parties expected to do well,
raising concerns about the single currency's stability.

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